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Latest: House Price Crash News

Wednesday, Nov 25 2015 Add a News Blog Article

Interest-only a ticking debt timebomb

Business Insider: We'll all pay for the huge mistakes we're making in the UK housing market

>> "The Citizens Advice Bureau warned that 934,000 UK home owners have no plan for payong off the principal on their interest only mortgage. Britain could encounter the first round of these problem owners in 2017." Interest-only loans fuelled the 80s housing bubble, allowing borrowers to bid up prices more an the high interest rates would otherwise have allowed. While most of these price excesses were cleansed by 1996, the underlying debt is still out there, waiting to catch up with generation debt, most of whom are approaching retirement. Should be interesting. Maybe lenders will extend their loan terms?

Posted by debtserf @ 09:14 PM 6 Comments

The pigs start to squeal!

This is money: Hopes rise that top rate of stamp duty may be cut as sales of upmarket homes collapse

Tax experts believe the Chancellor has the chance to take action to cut the top rate of stamp duty this week citing a fall in tax revenues as sales of upmarket homes collapse.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:47 AM 12 Comments

Tory think-tank wants to shut stable door after horse is long gone

Guardian: Is it time to close the door to foreign buyers of British property?

It is a dramatic repudiation of decades of thinking in the Conservative party. These are the people who have, until now, equated rising house prices with wealth and prosperity, and who have profited enormously from buy-to-let and billions in foreign cash. But the Bow Group now recognises that Britain’s housing market is broken – and its prescription for reform may stagger traditional Tory supporters.

Posted by debtserf @ 08:16 AM 8 Comments

From the horses mouth

Daily mail: Nationwide boss says London prices could slam into reverse

Straight talk from a leading lender....this bubble is now so huge that when it bursts all hell will break loose. Don't forget London has over 25% of mortgage money held there add south east and I suspect near 50% of All mortgage money is held in a monster property bubble...and nationwide and other banks have been lending into it.

Posted by taffee @ 05:48 AM 0 Comments

Mortgage manipulation

Notayesmanseconomics's Blog: Can macroprudential policy control house prices?

Shaun Richards discusses the overall effect of MMR and the Funding for Lending Scheme. It's hard to see any sense or purpose in simultaneously trying to cool the mortgage market by MMR while at the same time, the "Bank of England still has its foot on the mortgage market pedal via the Funding for Lending Scheme." In the closing paragraph, Richards asserts that the UK financial regulators haven't really tried to control the mortgage market at all.

Posted by quiet guy @ 11:47 AM 0 Comments

What will this growing, powerful voting block be offered?

Torygraph: Generation no hopers: just a quarter of people in their 20s and 30s will own a home by 2025

Really scary, so much demand is going to be sucked out of the economy as more and more people are subject to ever increasing rents that bear no relation to the cost of production of housing

Posted by mombers @ 10:30 AM 18 Comments

Then like my dreams they fade and die...

Bloomberg: London home Bubble May Have Burst

Now, “36 percent of all properties currently on the market across prime central London are being marketed at a lower price than they were originally listed at, with the average reduction in price being 8.5 percent.” A good start, and plenty further to fall in the big smoke?

Posted by debtserf @ 09:38 AM 24 Comments

Chinese capital controls put pressure on London Housing

Zerohedge: Another Bubble Bursts: Ultra Luxury London Home Prices Tumble 12%

'' the aftermath of Beijing's crack down on capital controls following its August currency devaluation, that "new Chinese 'regulations' may just kill Australia's golden goose of 'weath creation' as Aussie's largest trade partner sees its economy collapse."

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:51 AM 1 Comments

The elephant in the room for housing, the low wage or no-wage automated economy

Guardian: Robots threaten 15m UK jobs, says Bank of England's chief economist

Automation threatens of all existing jobs in the UK and the “third machine age” will hollow out the labour market as never before, widening the gap between rich and poor. The third industrial evolution will intensify the trends seen in the first two and widen the distribution of wages thus resulting in a disproportionate share of labour’s income, “the space remaining for uniquely human skills could shrink further”. Labour’s share of the pie could fall even more dramatically and faster than in the past. “On this view, the tree would be so thoroughly hollowed-out that it may no longer be able to support itself.” Haldane suggests that increasing automation may already be depressing wage growth, explaining why inflation has consistently undershot the government’s 2% target.

Posted by enuii @ 07:27 PM 4 Comments

House price crash not looking likely

Telegraph: UK unemployment plummets to lowest in more than seven years

"Britain's jobs-rich recovery gathered momentum in the quarter to September as unemployment fell to a seven year low and the number of people in work hit a fresh high. The unemployment rate fell to 5.3pc in the three months to September. This is down from 5.6pc in the quarter to June and represents the lowest rate since April 2008. Economists had expected unemployment to remain unchanged from 5.4pc in August." Long time readers may recall some analysis of a correlation between unemployment rates and house price changes. It's hard to see how we can have a crash with such strong employment numbers even if they do include more low pay jobs for renters.

Posted by quiet guy @ 11:44 PM 41 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Aug 15 £284,000 N/A 5.20 TickThis monthN/A13/10/2015
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Sep 15 £284,742 0.40 4.20 CrossThis monthN/A08/10/2015 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Mar 15 £192,970 0.40 8.10 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
3.4009/04/2015 (PDF) (England and Wales) Apr 15 N/A 0.90 6.50 Cross N/A N/A 14/04/2015 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Sep 14 N/A 0.00 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 26/09/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Aug 15 £184,682 0.50 4.20 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
0.7328/09/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Mar 15 £189,454 0.10 5.10 TickThis monthN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £281,752 1.00 5.40 TickThis monthN/A16/03/2015 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
change (%)
change (%)
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Aug 15 £522,000 N/A N/A 4.20 Tick£525,000
(Jul 15)
Halifax House Price Index Q4 14 £356,054 N/A N/A 14.50 CrossThis quarterN/A08/01/2015 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Aug 15 £493,026 1.70 N/A 6.60 TickThis monthN/A28/09/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 15 £408,780 N/A 1.00 12.70 CrossThis quarterN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £580,308 0.40 N/A 5.50 Tick£601,180
(Nov 14)
3.4716/03/2015 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession. HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive