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Black Friday: Police Attend Supermarkets Amid Scuffles
Guardian 28/11/14 '“I got a Dyson but I don’t even know if I want it...

About To Put Relative's House On Market
I'm about to put a late relative's house on the market.... tempting to accept a&...

Nationwide +0,3%
~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Nov_2014.pdf   The annu...

Judge Takes Pity On 'embarrassed' Rbs Bankers Who Committed £3M Fraud
Two RBS bankers have walked away from a £3m property fraud without having t...

Are We Reliving The 1930S? - Uk & Us - Forbes Article
Are We Reliving The 1930s?     www.forbes.com/sites/neilhowe/2014/11/2...

Field To Dwelling
I've just had a letter from the council planners about a neighbour getting plann...

'letting Agent Charged £1,260 To Change Two Names – Then Evicted Us'
...

Net Migration To Uk Rises To 260,000
As per title... fairly awkward for Cameron but surely great news for UKIP &...

Apprentice Job With Free Housing And Vegetables
https://www.wwoof.org.uk/latest-news/community-market-garden-apprentice-opportun...

Fifty Is The New 20 For South Korean Workers, Data Shows
    Workers in their fifties outnumbered those in their twenties las...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Friday, Nov 28 2014 Add a News Blog Article

Will a change in rules affect House Prices?

SKY: Cameron Sets Out EU Migrant Crackdown Plans

"The PM wants to restrict tax credits, child benefit, and access to social housing to migrants who have lived here for four years". Few pople outside of the Labour front bench will deny the impact of large scale immigration on House Prices. Changing the rules and putting in restrictions could make the UK a less attractive place for immigrants.

Posted by alan @ 12:25 PM 1 Comments

Must be true if it's the BBC :-)

BBC News: Housing market 'continues to soften', Nationwide says

The annual pace of house price growth has slowed for the third consecutive month, according to the UK's second biggest mortgage lender. Nationwide said house price inflation fell to 8.5%% in November on an annual basis, down from 9.0% in October. Prices rose by 0.3% in November from the month before, compared with an increase of 0.5% in October. The increase took the average price of a property up to £189,388, Nationwide said. "Housing market activity levels have remained relatively weak in recent months."

Posted by khards @ 07:40 AM 7 Comments

But the Scots were told OIL was their ace in the hole

Guardian: Oil price plunges after Opec split keeps output steady

"Opec’s likely decision not to cut quotas prompts slump in Brent crude price and calls for North Sea tax breaks to "save jobs"". Well, bite the bullet chaps, it's all in aid of helping our American masters to antagonise Russia. Look on the bright side - it gives us a bit more time to evaluate this fracking phenomenon before it messes up everyone's drinking water. When the water supply gets screwed, the benefits of a room with a good view of the Thames sharply diminish.

Posted by alan @ 07:58 PM 2 Comments

Let's see how far she gets with this one

The Scotsman: Nicola Sturgeon to crack down on major landowners

Enforced land sales, land to benefit 'the many not the few', a more progressive land transaction tax to hit expensive properties, intervention where the scale of landownership or the conduct of the landlord are barriers to 'sustainable development', landownership and values to be 'more transparent' and owners to be 'more accountable', ending of business rates exemption for deerstalking and shooting estates and more land in community ownership. A landowners' group says “Large landowners in Scotland have subsidised communities and the people who live in that land for a long, long time, If you remove them (landowners) from the equation, we’ve got a real potential for land abandonment" Comment from Sutherland "Dukes/Lords without a trace of a Scottish accent own almost all the land here"

Posted by icarus @ 07:07 PM 3 Comments

BOE rate rise scam

Uk.investing: UK 3yr bonds break support

So, we have it. Oil prices heading towards $60 and it appears to be structural, with OPEC's control fo the market shattered. Deflation sets in with increased competition and rates must go negative, adjusting to the new reality, that productive capacity is exceeding demand now, and so rates must be negative to drive any investment. My prediction still stands. Soon as BOE are forced to admit that inflation will not reach 2% within the projection timescale, we are on the verge of that with the last inflation report, it will become lear that the next move for rates will be DOWN, initially to 0.25%, but deflationary headwinds in Europe will have them with negative rates already (due there in part to ineptitude multiplying global deflationary forces), and Britain will be forced to follow.

Posted by libertas @ 12:53 PM 15 Comments

Avvin a spot of bovver are we?

Telegraph: UK faces £34bn bill for black hole in EU budget

"EU accused of financial mismanagement after auditors find huge black hole in the Brussels budget". "David Cameron will be legally obliged to make up a share of a shortfall of £259 billion by 2020 with liabilities for the Treasury estimated at £33.7bn, calculated at the usual rate of Britain’s EU contributions". No worries Camo, just give 'em a bit more austerity. Someone will find you a cushy well paid job when you leave - just like Tony Bliar. Sadly, this may confirm the government's intentions to devalue the currency after the election - in which case House Prices and PMs could rise. Plenty of ads for repossesed houses on the HPC screen - does someone know something?

Posted by alan @ 11:49 AM 3 Comments

Europe - No longer Fertile & Vibrant says the Pope

BBC: Juncker reveals giant EU investment plan

"European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has given details of a €315bn investment plan to kick-start Europe's economy. At the heart of his five-year agenda is a new €21bn fund, which would be used as seed money, to entice private backers to "pitch in" most of the rest. Only €8bn of the original money would come from the EU budget itself". Meanwhile, the details that have emerged in the so-called Luxleaks documents have put Mr Juncker in an uncomfortable position - but who cares, as long as the cronies get their cash and the proles get more austerity - so what? If anyone complains, give them a free Kim Kardashian app....

Posted by alan @ 10:30 AM 7 Comments

Firing those loose cannons

Counterpunch: Trotsky at the IMF

Firing (terminating) loose cannons is one way of keeping wealth flowing upwards and workers in their place. Eliot Spitzer, then governor of NY, wrote an editorial exposing the collusion between the Treasury, the Fed and Wall Street in deregulating the banks (in the guise of regulating them). A month later he was 'fired' for a sex thing. Dominic Strauss-Khan, the IMF CEO, gave a speech opposing austerity - 'market discipline', 'fiscal consolidation' and 'labour flexibility' - and advocating full employment, wealth sharing, public investment, collective bargaining and taxing financial activities as means of achieving economic stability and prosperity. A month later he was 'fired' for a sex thing. As the Americans say, 'go figure'.

Posted by icarus @ 10:23 AM 5 Comments

The Recovery - Latest

Telegraph: UK GDP growth powered by consumer spending as business investment contracts

"Economists raise concerns about rebalancing as growth figures show UK expansion powered by higher consumer and government spending, while business investment contracts" ."The UK economy grew by 0.7pc between July and September, following growth of 0.9pc in the second quarter, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed".

Posted by alan @ 10:19 AM 1 Comments

George Clooney look-alike

Telegraph: BoE will raise interest rates despite euro gloom, says Mark Carney

Carney needs an academy award for acting. In 2009, Cooney was included in Time's annual Time 100 as one of the "Most Influential People in the World." Alas, Mark Carney can't seem to make up his mind what's what. The Guardian recently advised him to say as little as possible to avoid more confusion - but he's not happy with a walk on part. To help him, Google has reminded us that stocks of Ouija Boards are all but depleted in advance of Black Friday. Maybe the MPC are still trying to find another way forward?

Posted by alan @ 06:51 PM 5 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £262,000 N/A 10.50 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Jun 14 £268,637 0.70 9.60 CrossThis monthN/A11/07/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 14 £183,462 0.60 8.80 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
8.1609/07/2014 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jul 14 N/A 0.57 9.56 Cross N/A N/A 15/07/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jul 14 N/A 0.10 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 25/07/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £172,011 0.00 6.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
7.5428/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jul 14 £188,949 0.10 10.60 TickThis monthN/A31/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £270,159 0.80 6.50 Tick£272,275
(Jun 14)
0.7821/07/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £492,000 N/A N/A 20.10 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q2 14 £330,315 N/A N/A 15.90 CrossThis quarterN/A04/07/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £437,608 0.10 N/A 16.40 Tick£439,719
(May 14)
0.4828/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 14 £400,404 N/A 7.60 25.80 CrossThis quarterN/A02/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £587,174 0.40 N/A 13.90 Tick£592,763
(May 14)
0.9421/07/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive