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Wednesday, Jul 27 2016 Add a News Blog Article

The surge is well under way.

Independent: Home Affairs Committee: "UK must prepare for immigration surge after Brexit"

Insulting your intelligence they claim the surge is hypothetical, it is happening right now and possibly explains why French border control has been taken unawares. I would not be surprised if net migration does no hit a million people this year, as folk front-run border controls. Housing shortages could be so acute that houses per surveyor go below double digits whilst house prices could just mushroom beyond all belief.

Posted by libertas @ 12:50 PM 1 Comments

Estate agent fails to predict price rise

Savills: Brexit impact on mainstream market

Apparently "caution" is as bad as it'll get. Yawn. Let me know when we get to outright feast that price drops will never end.

Posted by sneaker @ 08:57 PM 0 Comments

5-10% ... to start?

Financial Times: London property prices to fall 5-10% – Peel Hunt

"The report predicts that businesses will remain wary of committing to property until the outcome of negotiations with the EU are clearer, with the risk of losing financial passporting rights a particular risk for City office space." I fully expect nine-figure apartments to drop by much more than 5-10%. Could be 90%. But since they were bought with laundered offshore cash and not onshore mortages, perhaps this "decapitation" move will have limited spill-over.

Posted by sneaker @ 02:00 PM 0 Comments

A good gamble

Telegraph: Huge spike in Chinese property investors' interest in the UK post-Brexit

“Now, with politics stabilizing and a competent new government in place, the UK looks like the same old safe haven as ever – but cheaper.”

Posted by tom101 @ 04:08 PM 1 Comments

They are not Tourists, morons, they are MIGRANTS

Daily Mail: Brexit BONANZA: Tourists are pouring into Britain — and it's the time for homeowners to cash in by r

There is literally a race right now to flood into Britain and front-run border controls. It is being reported as a tourist rush, but how many will go home? Many will stay until they get indefinite leave to remain. This is a total disaster. We should repeal the European Communities Act IMMEDIATELY. Then replace freedom of movement with a freedom to work. Visa free access, but no right to reside unless you have a job and, no benefits or NHS until a Citizen and you have to have private healthcare between times. Simple, and if the EU threaten us with tariffs, we would make money from them because they export way more to us than we do to them!! House prices in Britain are literally going to go to the moon because of this.

Posted by libertas @ 11:34 PM 3 Comments

Rachmanism part 2

Sky News: UK Housing Crisis Could Mark Return Of Slums

The shrinking stock of social housing is pushing more vulnerable people into an increasingly over-priced private rental market.Slums may be re-emerging in the UK, with growing concern about the number of private renters living in hazardous or squalid conditions.A dramatic increase in the number of renters and poor regulation in the private sector, are being exploited by rogue landlords, according to local authorities and housing campaigners.

Posted by jack c @ 09:30 AM 5 Comments

THERE IS NO BUBBLE - House prices have FALLEN in most parts of the UK since 2005

LoveBTL: Where UK house prices have risen and fallen in real terms since 2005

Using BoE inflation data a LoveBTL writer claims that, if you exclude London, the East and the South East, then house prices have actually fallen (in real terms) since 2005.

Posted by landofconfusion @ 02:46 PM 4 Comments

What is luxury in London?

Telegraph: Prices of luxury London homes 'could fall as much as 50pc'

I'm struggling with the term "Luxury" in the context of London flats and housing. £2m gets you what exactly in London? "A simplistic ‘back of the envelope’ computation shows there were 3,140 real estate transactions registered above £2m in London in 2015 (and 920 in 2016 leading up to Brexit)." So that would be a normal house in a less than favourable area or a one bedroom in a nice area?

Posted by tom101 @ 02:28 PM 1 Comments

Brexit impact seeping through

Guardian: UK property asking prices drop 0.9% since June

The average asking price of homes coming on to the market in England and Wales has fallen since mid June, according to property website Rightmove, with the Brexit vote exaggerating the usual summer slowdown.

Posted by tom101 @ 09:39 AM 0 Comments

Sorry, but this brazen confidence is bullish, long term

The Guardian: 'A tortured heap of towers': the London skyline of tomorrow

RE-POSTED: Even this article is out of date, with more skyscrapers granted since. If the City can suck in enough companies to fill these towers, they will all need places to live. Look on the London Overground routes from Liverpool Street and along the Crossrail route to see where workers will live. Remember, BOE will cut interest rates if these towers, being constructed a few mins walk from Threadneedle St, halt work.

Posted by libertas @ 08:33 AM 2 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £292,000 N/A 7.90 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Feb 16 £289,229 0.80 6.20 Cross£292,077
(Dec 15)
0.9810/03/2016 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Feb 16 £209,495 1.40 9.70 TickThis monthN/A03/03/2016 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Mar 16 N/A 0.90 7.90 Cross N/A N/A 11/03/2016 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jan 16 N/A 0.50 7.80 Cross N/A N/A 26/02/2016
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £190,275 0.20 6.10 Tick£191,812
(Jan 16)
0.8030/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Apr 16 £202,436 0.20 4.90 TickThis monthN/A02/05/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £303,190 1.30 7.60 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £551,000 N/A N/A 10.80 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
Halifax House Price Index Q4 15 £416,163 N/A N/A 16.40 CrossThis quarterN/A01/01/2016 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £530,368 0.60 N/A 13.50 Tick£530,409
(Jan 16)
0.0130/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 16 £455,984 N/A 1.20 11.50 Cross£456,229
(Q4 15)
0.0504/04/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £644,045 0.00 N/A 11.00 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.

Predictions archive