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Omnia Strategies Letter Of Complaint To Hmrc
This is an interesting read and outlines the basis to the legal challenge to Cla...

"timmy" Geithner Gets Loan From Jamie Dimon For Pe Investment
        “You are in a position to make 20 percent t...

Weak Uk Tax Revenue Could Thwart Osborne's Surplus Aim, Thinktank Says
    Chancellor George Osborne's ambition to run a budget surplus by ...

Hedge Funds Short London Housing Shares - Omg!
Sorry - correct story here:    Posted one a year old by accident doh! ...

Property News Stats
It looks like something is conveniently broken on Property News stats.   Lo...

Getting Ready For The Spring Bounce....
  #CaveatEmptor ...

Cdo's And Bespoke Tranch Opportunity's
A question for someone more intelligent than me.   The big banks have devel...

Telegraph: Ten Reasons Why I'm Looking Forwards To The House Price Crash
!!Front page on their website:...

Eu To Introduce Draft Multinationals Tax Proposals
#commentsDiv In April. IMO it needs to go further as the proposals would only af...

Prepare, ....., For 50 Per Cent-Plus Price Drops.
I think  this is actually VERY interesting....   There’s a lot o...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Tuesday, Feb 9 2016 Add a News Blog Article

Is the property market as rigged as LIBOR?

The Independent: There’s a lot of flapping and clucking in the UK ‘luxury apartment’ market as the chickens come home to roost

"I was told this week by an industry insider that “85 per cent sold” really means “£2,000 deposits paid on 85 per cent”. And because they face an economic slowdown at home, Chinese investors in particular are saying: “Keep the £2,000 – and if you don’t like it come after us in the Chinese courts.” They are defaulting, in other words, with no consequences. And the result is that some developers are left holding a huge supply of apartments that few onshore buyers can afford. Prepare, said my nark, for 50 per cent-plus price drops."

Posted by sneaker @ 07:20 PM 3 Comments

Buy to rot!

Zero hedge: These Vancouver Homes Sold For Millions In 2011 And Have Been Vacant And Rotting Since: Here's Why

Over the pond in Vancouver Chinese investors ( sorry money launderers) have bought multi million pound properties and left them to rot. Exactly the same has happened in London, except that high rise apartments don't rot.But the impact of pricing locals out, having zero positive effect on ongoing GDP are exactly the same. Australia has taken action against this, The Chinese governement is supposedly coming down heavy on it and it looks like Canada will follow suit. How long will it be before this becomes an international issue like immigration and the UK takes action as well. I can see the possibility of a number of black swans colliding mid air when government policy on buy to let, non doms, and eventually foreign ownerships collides with economic reality.

Posted by britishblue @ 01:52 PM 3 Comments

'experts' dont know why?

Dailymail: Bank shares are plunging like 2007/2008

Well the real players know something is afoot....could it be the realisation they have been lending into the biggest property/credit bubble since japan 1992?

Posted by taffee @ 10:31 AM 6 Comments

Britain's version of the Beverley Hills tour

Guardian: Mega-rich homes tour puts spotlight on London's oligarchs

roll up roll up

Posted by cyril @ 09:32 AM 0 Comments

Absolute disaster, please respond with anger

HM Treasury: Consultation on additional stamp duty for second homes

In this backwards proposal, married couples are treated as individuals and so will pay additional tax if they buy a new home and cannot sell their existing residence on time, with potential for a refund, but where will they find cash for the new tax? Also taxing those who need a second home for work or those who own a property overseas, maybe for family reasons. Meanwhile, the big corporate buy to let companies are EXEMPT from the tax, and unmarried couples can have two principle homes!! They are incentivising big landlords and also making moving house a total chore and creating a massive tax reason to get divorced or not get married. These people are clinically insane. Please let your MP know how angry you are.

Posted by libertas @ 12:35 PM 0 Comments

I thought there was a massive lack of supply

Dailymail: Half a million btlets could flood the market

another nail in the coffin for the bulls...THERE IS NOT A SHORTAGE OF PROPERTY...ITS JUST IN THE WRONG HANDS...if this does happen then expect banks to pull buy to let deals....spiral spiral

Posted by taffee @ 01:18 PM 26 Comments

Tulips in Central London

Estate Agent today: Estate Agent News

Articles describes how major portals are awash with top end resales of luxury flats in developments in London. This end of the market has been a casino for some time: People buying property but not living in it. Many of these concrete blocks with glass facades are soulless and not luxury living.These buyers are not immune from world events. The housing market oftne starts in Central London and snowballs out, if there is a crash in the central London apartment ponzi it will be interesting to see how this effects sentiment in the wider market

Posted by britishblue @ 08:48 AM 5 Comments

And BTL folk wonder why they have no mates?

Torygraph: 'I've doubled my yield through letting ex-council houses'

No shame at all - and no doubt a fair whack of the rent on these comes from Housing Benefit. And then this kicker: "He charges a weekly rent of £755, which equates to £39,260 p.a. His current gross yield is 6.3pc, but a new tube line opening nearby means he expects this to increase to 8.4pc by 2020." So nice to see where my taxes are going...

Posted by mombers @ 06:50 PM 2 Comments

Out-going tide revealing trash

Wall Street J: China Calls Lending Platform Ezubo a $7.6 Billion Ponzi Scheme

prosecutors are seeking restitution for 900,000 investors. Shadow banking Ezubo promised investors returns of 9% to 14.6%. Now regretting they didn't invest in the London property Ponzi instead.

Posted by mountain goat @ 01:05 PM 1 Comments

No bear food here

Land Registry: House Price Index, December 2015

So, leading the pack are: Reading 17.1%, Barking & Dagenham 15.3%, Hillingdon 15.2%, Luton 14.7%, Slough 14.1%, ENFIELD 13.4%, Thurrock 12.5%, Greater London 12.4%. Overall monthly growth of 1.2%, annual 6.4% for the UK with a clear ripple effect gentrifying previously marginal spots as existing hot spots become maxed out for starter homes. Will Luton be the new Shoreditch?! (It is after all just 24mins from from London).

Posted by libertas @ 12:21 PM 8 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Aug 15 £284,000 N/A 5.20 TickThis monthN/A13/10/2015
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Sep 15 £284,742 0.40 4.20 CrossThis monthN/A08/10/2015 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Mar 15 £192,970 0.40 8.10 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
3.4009/04/2015 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Apr 15 N/A 0.90 6.50 Cross N/A N/A 14/04/2015 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Sep 14 N/A 0.00 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 26/09/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Aug 15 £184,682 0.50 4.20 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
0.7328/09/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Mar 15 £189,454 0.10 5.10 TickThis monthN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £281,752 1.00 5.40 TickThis monthN/A16/03/2015 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Aug 15 £522,000 N/A N/A 4.20 Tick£525,000
(Jul 15)
0.5713/10/2015
Halifax House Price Index Q4 14 £356,054 N/A N/A 14.50 CrossThis quarterN/A08/01/2015 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Aug 15 £493,026 1.70 N/A 6.60 TickThis monthN/A28/09/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 15 £408,780 N/A 1.00 12.70 CrossThis quarterN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £580,308 0.40 N/A 5.50 Tick£601,180
(Nov 14)
3.4716/03/2015 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive