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Latest: House Price Crash News

Thursday, Mar 18 2010 Add a News Blog Article

Anybody buying a house now must realise the rates are unnaturally low and will go up in future years

Evening Standard: Ken Clarke: Hung Parliament would be an economic disaster

"Homeowners face painful rises in mortgage rates in coming years, Tory big beast Kenneth Clarke warns today. In an exclusive interview with the Evening Standard, he said rock-bottom loan rates protecting borrowers from the worst of the recession are bound to end, whoever wins the general election. “Anybody buying a house now must realise the rates are unnaturally low and will go up in future years.” Mr Clarke warned borrowers: “In working out whether you can afford a house, you have to work out if you can afford a quite perceptible increase in interest rates, regardless of who the government is.”

Posted by tenant super @ 06:19 PM 3 Comments

Fraudster

East London Advertiser: Baroness Uddin 'escaped' social housing loophole

I have been watching developments in this case closely. I pointed out that if Uddin was lying to the expenses committee she was a fraudster. If she was found to be truthful (that her main home was in Kent) then she should lose her social housing tenancy. But she isn't as dim as I thought!

Posted by tenant super @ 06:08 PM 0 Comments

Electric car to be built in UK

Telegraph: Nissan Leaf to be built in Sunderland after carmaker gets Government support

Good news this, but thanks to government support?! The £5000 government subsidy for electric cars must apply to imported cars too. Perhaps we should thank a weaker £pound instead (for which we can thank our spendthrift Govt!).

Posted by mountain goat @ 04:17 PM 9 Comments

..simples, PAY more!

Telegraph: City poaching brightest engineering and science talent, BAE chairman warns

Britain's manufacturing skills gap could be improved if the City stopped poaching the brightest engineering and science graduates, according to BAE Systems' chairman. Recently people have looked more closely at what creates value and can be exported," he said. "The result is high-end engineering and manufacturing, which are a hugely good way of getting ourselves out of these recessionary problems. Already India is producing 650,000 engineering graduates a year compared to Britain's 20,000. He said Britain needs to produce at least 25,000 engineering graduates a year, to meet the estimated requirement for 970,000 engineers in Britain by 2017

Posted by cat and canary @ 03:39 PM 15 Comments

Land use, scientific evidence

Foresight: Land Use Futures - scientific evidence

Evidence for LVT "There is a strong case for decisions about land use – at all levels, and across different land use sectors – to reflect a much broader concept of the value generated by land. Only then will the greatest benefits be unlocked, and tensions effectively managed." "This process itself may need to be part of a deliberative process of arbitration over particular decisions, but could be facilitated by a general review of taxes and subsidies or payment schemes." "The guiding principle for a more coherent approach would be to combine a more sophisticated understanding of how land creates value for society with governance which more proactively incentivises achievement of better value and the delivery of a wide range of sustainable and valued land services."

Posted by powerofnow @ 03:32 PM 2 Comments

In the grip of the Undead

New deal 2.0: Principal writedowns and the fake stress test

Many investors in first-lien mortgages (bundled securities holders) will accept principal writedowns in order to move on and use their money for other purposes, rather than having it locked in underwater mortgages with a high likelihood of foreclosure, but holders of second-lien mortgages (banks) are a major obstacle to this. These second liens have little value – the first liens are well underwater, and the prospect for any real return on the seconds is negligible - but accounting rules allow holders of these seconds to book them at artificially high values. So many refuse to write down the loans, thus preventing a correction and a moving on

Posted by icarus @ 02:19 PM 1 Comments

Bank bosses in fraud investigation

Reuters: Police arrest former irish bank boss

I really hope they come for hbos and rbs directors......HBOS bad loans are over £200 billion lent often without security probably on the golf course.....at least nick leeson did some time and he was only down £250 million went he did a runner...now its a weeks bad loan write-offs

Posted by taffee @ 02:15 PM 1 Comments

Government borrowing less than forecast

Brown Broadcasting Corporation: Government borrowing less than forecast

"Revisions for this financial year have now reduced borrowing by £2.9bn, meaning full-year borrowing could beat the government's £178bn forecast." ....brilliant, government borrows £175.1bn instead of 178.0bn, ...lets get the cocktails in, have a blast, hire a few more quangos, let your hair down!!

Posted by cat and canary @ 01:11 PM 4 Comments

The Co-operative profits up as disillusioned consumers go mutual

Daily Mail: The Co-operative profits up as disillusioned consumers go mutual

The Co-operative Group has recorded a boost in profits as a result of an influx of new account holders disillusioned with Britain's banks. Profits at Britain's largest mutual retailer soared on the success of the merger with Britannia building society and also the purchase of the Somerfield supermarket chain. The group, which traces its roots back to the founding of the co-operative movement in Rochdale in 1844, posted a jump of 85 per cent in profits before payments to members, reaching £402million in the year to January 2.

Posted by cat and canary @ 12:30 PM 3 Comments

Lending up prices down

Independent: Mortgage lending up

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "The mortgage approvals information from the Bank of England survey, in particular, adds to the impression that housing market activity has faltered early in 2010. "(It) reinforces our belief that prices will be prone to corrections and no more than flat over the year as a whole amid still largely unfavourable economic fundamentals and tight credit conditions."

Posted by chrisch @ 10:48 AM 3 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Dec 09 £200,307 N/A 2.90 Tick£221,758
(Jan 08)
9.6716/02/2010
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics) 12/03/10 Feb 10 £222,008 1.90 9.70 Cross£231,595
(Feb 08)
4.1412/03/2010 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Feb 10 £166,857 1.50 4.50 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
16.4804/03/2010 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) 12/03/10 Mar 10 N/A 0.50 0.30 Cross N/A N/A 12/03/2010 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Feb 10 N/A 0.30 0.40 Cross N/A N/A 01/03/2010
Land Registry Monthly Report Jan 10 £165,088 2.10 5.20 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
11.2626/02/2010 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Feb 10 £161,320 1.00 9.20 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
13.2926/02/2010 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Feb 10 £229,398 3.20 6.10 Tick£242,500
(May 08)
5.4015/02/2010 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Dec 09 £316,695 N/A N/A 4.90 Tick£351,096
(Jan 08)
9.8016/02/2010
Halifax House Price Index Q4 09 £255,473 N/A N/A 1.50 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
20.3829/01/2010 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jan 10 £336,212 3.90 N/A 10.50 Tick£357,976
(Jan 08)
6.0826/02/2010 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q4 09 £276,088 N/A 3.40 7.00 Cross£303,739
(Q4 07)
9.1008/01/2010 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Feb 10 £427,987 5.00 N/A 10.30 TickThis monthN/A15/02/2010 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Housepricecrash.co.ukJonathan DavisPhoto of Jonathan DavisSep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach 274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive