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Are We Sure There's A General Election Coming?
Now I'll be the first to admit, I don't watch much state propaganda, sorry telly...

1 In 20 Students Works In The Adult Industry Claims Survey
    More than a fifth of students have thought about being involved ...

Land Registry Index Feb 2015 - Up 0.5% Mom, 6.5% Yoy
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/february-2015-market-trend-data   The F...

Land Registry Hpi Report - Out Now
Oh dear: North East 6.2% 3.7% £102,061 Wales 4.4% 5.4% £123,941 ...

I Wish We'd Introduced Help To Buy Earlier - Cameron
I wish we'd introduced Help to Buy earlier, said Cameron last night (Sky, Channe...

Nationwide March 2015. Up 0.1% As Annual Growth Plummets
Up 0.1% on the month. It's actually a new nominal peak. Worth noting that the NS...

Under 40S - Will You Be Retiring At 65?
..or whatever the retirement age will be...  Me?  no, I doubt it, but ...

Proving I'm Good For It
I want to buy a house. And I'm at best and final offers (again). This time the E...

Reading Hpi Of 43% Over 5 Years Due To Crossrail
Just seen this pop up on my Facebook News Feed ;    As expected, boome...

Labour Plot To End Right To Buy: Minister Brands Party 'enemy Of Aspiration' Over Moves To Curb People Buying Their Own Council Houses
...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Friday, Mar 27 2015 Add a News Blog Article

Start i f something bigger?

Telegraph: Houseprice falls in central london spread

Prices starting to fall despite just about everything thrown at it...there is nothing left bar Hmg paying people's mortgages!..seems just like japan where prices fell despite everything Done to prop things up....the reason?....it's a bubble that's bursting as all bubbles do.

Posted by taffee @ 06:46 AM 6 Comments

Could deflation wreak havoc in the housing market?

Telegraph: Could deflation wreak havoc in the housing market?

If deflation goes on for a fraction too long it could unravel UK house prices...

Posted by cornishman @ 12:38 PM 16 Comments

If it's your pension, why is spending it out of the question?

Moneyweek: Getting lucky in the property market is not ‘providing for a long retirement’

Art critic Brian Sewell writes about this fear of a mansion tax. His house is his pension! Well in that case the mansion tax is no threat because a pension is an income and to turn a house into that you sell it. Tw#t

Posted by mombers @ 01:16 PM 0 Comments

Pure rent seeking...

Torygraph: Mapped: Where England’s best schools are pushing up house prices

I'm in the wrong game, working for a living instead of collecting an entrance fee for a school that I don't own

Posted by mombers @ 05:01 PM 0 Comments

Renting your way to poverty: welcome to the future of housing

The Telegraph: Renting your way to poverty: welcome to the future of housing

The housing crisis is already out of control, and no one in politics wants to help

Posted by becky @ 01:37 PM 3 Comments

A Dubious Policy

Telegraph: Help-to-buy ISA could distort housing market

"The Treasury estimated that around 285,000 first-time buyers will use the scheme every year." Yet February saw barely 19,000 FTBs, and prices are dropping. These ever-more-convoluted Treasury tweaks are just a sign of the growing govt desperation, as they know just how bad the market really is. When the government has to resort to giving people free money to get 'on the ladder', you know the top is in.

Posted by debtserf @ 11:02 AM 4 Comments

More Government-subsidised Ponzinomics

Guardian: Britain’s obsession with ownership has turned housing into a pyramid scheme

But what if all we’re really doing – by accepting crazed property prices as the norm, to be alleviated only by the fiscal equivalent of chucking tenners into a crowd – is sucking first-time buyers into a sort of national Ponzi scheme? What if we’re luring them in at what would otherwise have been the peak, just to keep the boom rolling a little bit longer, and leaving them horribly exposed to negative equity if another crash comes?

Posted by debtserf @ 08:34 AM 9 Comments

Property bubble finally bursting?

Home.co.uk: Central london property bubble burst

Boom Began in london so will the crash?....foxtons also laying off workers...this one will be a big one I'm with little the government can do

Posted by taffee @ 12:01 PM 10 Comments

Merryn Somerset Webb takes this apart quite nicely

Moneyweek: Cutting inheritance tax on homes is nuts – it’s just going to make the housing crisis worse

The crap coming out of the Tories really beggars belief...

Posted by mombers @ 05:36 PM 4 Comments

Why don't they just take away the artificial props on housing and fewer people will have £1m+ homes?

Graniard: Budget 2015: Tories’ £1m inheritance tax break aimed at wealthier households

Cognitive dissonance... It's a bad thing to aspire to own a nice house - large and rising stamp duty penalty. But existing owners are gifted council tax freezes and now the opportunity to pass their unearned gains. To their credit, the coalition introduced ATED so that offshore owned houses could no longer avoid IHT and CGT, but now they are going to exempt ones that are not enveloped offshore????

Posted by mombers @ 01:47 PM 0 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £262,000 N/A 10.50 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Jun 14 £268,637 0.70 9.60 CrossThis monthN/A11/07/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 14 £183,462 0.60 8.80 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
8.1609/07/2014 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jul 14 N/A 0.57 9.56 Cross N/A N/A 15/07/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jul 14 N/A 0.10 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 25/07/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £172,011 0.00 6.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
7.5428/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jul 14 £188,949 0.10 10.60 TickThis monthN/A31/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £270,159 0.80 6.50 Tick£272,275
(Jun 14)
0.7821/07/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £492,000 N/A N/A 20.10 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q2 14 £330,315 N/A N/A 15.90 CrossThis quarterN/A04/07/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £437,608 0.10 N/A 16.40 Tick£439,719
(May 14)
0.4828/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 14 £400,404 N/A 7.60 25.80 CrossThis quarterN/A02/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £587,174 0.40 N/A 13.90 Tick£592,763
(May 14)
0.9421/07/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive