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Thornbury
I posted in January '15 in the Yate/Chipping Sobdury topic about the housing mar...

Osborne To Raise Inheritance Tax Limit For Property To £1M
Financial Times.   Osborne to raise inheritance tax limit for property to &...

Labour's Frank Field Says Tax Credits Should Be Abolished By 2020
https://www.politicshome.com/economy-and-work/articles/story/cut-tax-credits-say...

Italy Approves Eu 'bail-In' Measure For Bank Rescue
    " Italy approves EU 'bail-in' measure for bank rescue"   I...

Fscs Deposit Protection Scheme Limit Cut To £75K From 2016
Due to sterling strength v Euro   Bank of England ‏@bankofengland 6m...

Foi Request To London Legacy Development Committee Re Self Build On Olympic Park
Back in 2013 there was a lot of publicity around the London Legacy Development C...

Rbs Could Face $13Bn Bill From Us Govt
Bloomberg did the numbers.   Let's hope they're right.   A US regula...

Tom Crawford Finally Evicted! Police Ring Of Steel!
Tom Crawford has finally had "his" house reposessed today, Police formed a 200m ...

House Price Insurance (Possible?)
Why isn't this possible?   You buy a house, agree principal etc, arrange mo...

Garden
Is it normal for Landlords to ask tenants to water the garden and do light maint...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Saturday, Jul 4 2015 Add a News Blog Article

More fuel to the fire

Guardian: Inheritance tax giveaway to feature in first Tory budget alongside welfare cuts

The government is proposing to increase the inheritance tax giving a boost to the property market and a better start in life to the well off. If you down size shortly before you croak you can keep the extra tax relief you would have had if you had stayed in your big house. So that's great but the disadvantage is that you will be dead.

Posted by cyril @ 09:54 AM 0 Comments

Another reason BTL should have been discouraged

Telegraph: Buy-to-let could pose a threat to UK economy, warns Bank of England

"In a downswing, investors selling buy-to-let properties into an illiquid market could amplify falls in house prices, potentially raising losses given default for all mortgages." Those risks could be amplified as Britain prepares to raise interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis, as a small rise in rates could wipe out the income from a property.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:32 AM 6 Comments

UK house prices declined between May and June against expectations of a further increase.

WBPOnline: UK House Prices Unexpectedly Decline in June

London - House prices in UK fell by 0.2% between May and June which led to the annual price index decelerating to two-year low of 3.3%, down from 4.6% a month before, according to the mortgage provider Nationwide. Both figures missed the market expectations of a further increase in price growth. Unlike Nationwide, property portal Rightmove informed that the earlier average asking price increased by a record high 3%, or £8,500, between May and June.

Posted by cornishman @ 08:24 AM 6 Comments

I agree, but think USA will be yet more attractive for capital flight.

Property Forum: Could London real estate benefit from Greek Eurozone exit?

"It does look as though the London real estate market will benefit to a certain extent from safe haven status and the ongoing problems in Greece. Whether this will stretch what many perceive to be already overvalued UK property assets remains to be seen but there is no doubt that the decision of previous UK governments not to adopt the Euro is certainly starting to pay great dividends for the country."

Posted by libertas @ 12:55 PM 12 Comments

Selling ourselves out

Guardian: London: the city that ate itself

A discussion about the way the property market is changing London for the worst. "It is suffering a form of entropy whereby the distinctive or special is converted into property values. Its essential qualities, which are that it was not polarised on the basis of income, and that its best places were common property, are being eroded. It is becoming the case that delights and beauties are available only at a high price. This would matter less if the city were making new places with the qualities of those now packaged up and commodified – if the supply of good stuff were expanding – but it is not."

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:39 AM 6 Comments

Evidence that landlords can pass on their increased tax bill = no

Torygraph: The single reason why buy-to-let investors must keep their £5bn-a-year tax break

"But the consequences for borrowers, lenders and the property market could be unexpected and iniquitous. My guess is landlords would push up rents as far as they could." Just the same as landlords pushing rents up or down as their interest bill goes up and down, right? How on earth does this bloke expect tenants who are already paying the absolute max that they can to miracle up some extra money to bail out the poor starving landlord? What will happen is that many will sell up, mainly to higher income tenants, leaving a smaller pool of lower income tenants and hence LOWER rents. An much easier reform in my opinion is to get rid of the ridiculous 10% maintenance allowance. It effectively means that maintenance is not deductible. If you spend £1000 or £0, you get the same deduction.

Posted by mombers @ 11:52 AM 10 Comments

Tories

Daily Moan: The Great British property divide

Same old Tories. Smiling in your face whist stabbing you in the back; 'This Government talks a lot about its 'northern powerhouse', but its policies are to remove resources and opportunities away from the north. It is time for David Cameron to be honest about what is happening on his watch.'

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:30 PM 0 Comments

Luxury homes led the demand, now lead the fall?

Telegraph: 'Colossal' fall in demand for luxury homes in parts of London, data reveals

The demand for homes fell in many pockets of the capital in the last two months, but picked up across the country.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 01:24 PM 5 Comments

Terrible people can't afford rent, shame on them

CNN: The middle class is struggling to make the rent

Making the rent is a common struggle for the poor. But it's becoming increasingly difficult among the middle class.

Posted by mark @ 10:13 AM 2 Comments

Anna White posting useful facts for once

Telegraph: The most expensive rents in Europe

"Many prospective first-time buyers and young families in the UK are trapped in rental accommodation as the chronic lack of homes - particularly in the London and the South East - continues to prop up house prices, making it more difficult to get on the property ladder." If only the houses they're renting were available to buy, then perhaps there would be no shortage...?

Posted by reticent @ 09:59 AM 2 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 15 £268,000 N/A 7.20 Tick£274,000
(Aug 14)
2.1914/04/2015
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Mar 15 £275,123 0.20 5.60 Cross£280,733
(Nov 14)
2.0017/04/2015 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Mar 15 £192,970 0.40 8.10 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
3.4009/04/2015 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Apr 15 N/A 0.90 6.50 Cross N/A N/A 14/04/2015 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Sep 14 N/A 0.00 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 26/09/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report 29/08/15 Feb 15 £180,252 0.50 6.50 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
3.1127/03/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Mar 15 £189,454 0.10 5.10 TickThis monthN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £281,752 1.00 5.40 TickThis monthN/A16/03/2015 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 15 £490,000 N/A N/A 9.40 Tick£514,000
(Jul 14)
4.6714/04/2015
Halifax House Price Index Q4 14 £356,054 N/A N/A 14.50 CrossThis quarterN/A08/01/2015 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report 29/08/15 Feb 15 £463,872 0.60 N/A 13.10 TickThis monthN/A27/03/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 15 £408,780 N/A 1.00 12.70 CrossThis quarterN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £580,308 0.40 N/A 5.50 Tick£601,180
(Nov 14)
3.4716/03/2015 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive