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Nearly A Million Have No Plan For Paying Off Io Mortgages
  Nearly a million homeowners have no way of paying off their mortgages be...

Shares - Do I Need An Isa Wrapper?
I have a few £k in shares, which forms my pension ... when is it advisable ...

Housing Market Disfunctional
The UK housing market is "dysfunctional" and building more homes will fail to s...

It's Not Often We Get A £5Million Drop.....
^61324&insId=4&maxDaysSinceAdded=7&googleAnalyticsChannel=buying   28/08/20...

Paying Of Mortgage Vs Savings.
My mortage is fixed at 3percent for 10years and are allowed to pay 10% of each y...

Private Eye's Map Of Land Owned By Offshore Companies
  "OVER the last year Private Eye has revealed the extent of ownership of ...

Grauniad Says Houses Are Too Expensive
    ...

Morgan Stanley Calls Time On The Crash
Full house  buy alert apparently. Stanley has form...all out buy 2009, all ...

125,000 Tenants Suffered Abuse From Slumlords Last Year
More than 125,000 people privately renting homes in England have suffered abusiv...

China Fooled The World
Ring of fire indeed ... Keep a loo roll in the fridge all you greatest fools...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Friday, Sep 4 2015 Add a News Blog Article

Check out the finanical hoods in your neighbourhood

Private Eye: Selling England by the offshore pound

Spotted in the Forum, have a look, very interesting but I cant work out why someone would buy (or state) a purchase value e.g. a leasehold terraced house in Warrington as £48,295,950 or a new build Flat on the outskirts as £16,028,500. Check out your neighbourhood.

Posted by enuii @ 11:40 PM 5 Comments

London property will be mortally damaged during the great unwind

ICIS Chemicals: China fooled the world, and now comes the Great Unwinding

It is exactly a year since we forecast that a Great Unwinding of stimulus policies was underway, due to a major slowdown in China....Those who have chased London house prices into the stratosphere may come to learn a similar lesson, as the Chinese buyers who have powered demand for new-build houses in the city centre exit their positions.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:30 PM 3 Comments

Another interesting article my Merryn Somerset Webb

Moneyweek: How super-low interest rates are ruining the economy

"If you can’t get a return on cash, says Capital Economics, you might as well rent out your old home or just keep it empty when you move" This is an interesting idea. While the renting out part is not a disaster - it doesn't shrink the supply of housing, just reduces liquidity - the leaving empty is a big problem. If there's no fire lit under the landowner by interest rates in excess of house price inflation, if you have the cash flow, you can hold onto the house for a lot longer. My neighbour did this - house was on the market but empty for moire than 6 months before she extracted a crippling sum from the buyer. Over this period, the increase in price dwarfed any actual opportunity cost.

Posted by mombers @ 02:10 PM 9 Comments

More green shoots....UK heading for low wage, low growth and high debt

Mail: Number of people with a zero-hours contracts jumps by a fifth in a year and 40% want to work more

The number of people who say they have a zero-hours contract has jumped by a fifth in a year, new figures showed today. The Office for National Statistics said 744,000 have a deal which does not guarantee any hours, with 40 per cent saying they would like more work.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 12:04 PM 4 Comments

Losing momentum?

Guardian: Annual house price growth at slowest point for two years

The annual rate of house price growth was the weakest for two years in August, said Nationwide, despite a 0.3% monthly rise in prices. The Nationwide’s findings on house prices reflect a much more modest growth than that documented by rival Halifax. Earlier this month, Halifax reported that house prices are almost 8% higher than they were a year ago and are likely to rise again over the coming months.

Posted by debtserf @ 11:44 AM 2 Comments

Forget interset rate rises - the Fed is bluffing

Counterpunch: Return to crisis : Things keep getting worse

With US stock, bond and real estate markets all looking over-valued, at the same time (in 1929 it was only stocks) and investors fleeing stock and bonds, interest rate rises are out. Corporations need to borrow to manipulate stock-markets upwards via buy-backs, banks need to protect the value of securities on their books - kept up by low IRs, and the last thing corporations with declining earnings and revenues need is to divert more cash to debt servicing.

Posted by icarus @ 06:19 PM 18 Comments

Real estate as investment and tax dodge, rather than as dwelling

The New York Times: Lovely, Lamentable London

What draws the world to London is opportunity. But it is also a magnet for people looking for a safe place for their money. Having made it in countries like Russia and China with a cowed press, rampant corruption and no rule of law, oligarchs and crony capitalists reach the conclusion that they like nothing as much as democratic systems with real legal systems and a vigorous press. Having trashed the West they trust the West with their money, driving up prices in prime markets to the point where the middle classes of those countries, with incomes stagnant or falling (and taxed), are pushed aside. London is the capital of these trends. That is the different reek, of something amiss and skewed and wrong, in its purring streets.

Posted by sneaker @ 10:30 AM 2 Comments

Increased mortgage approvals, not necessarily new sales

Mail: Britons using homes 'like bank accounts': Boom in remortgaging as homeowners free up cash to help with day-to-day living costs

Homeowners are increasingly using their properties like a bank account by remortgaging to free up cash and make life easier. The typical remortgage loan topped £170,000 for the first time in July – and applications were up by more than a third year on year.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:54 AM 9 Comments

The UK Housing Market and Out of Control Immigration

Market Oracle: UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Record, Trending Towards Becoming a Catastrophe

Nothing illustrates the consequences of continuing out of control immigration more than its impact on the UK housing market, where Conservative election promises to build 200,000 homes per year will prove totally worthless in wake of the immigration Tsunami against which housing building cannot even keep pace with existing demand let alone deal with new demand, especially when one considers that the UK population is already growing naturally by about 300,000 per year which means that even if the promised 200,000 homes were built, then it will not be enough to keep pace with population increasing by 600,000 per year, let alone that far fewer homes will probably be built at the rate of approx 140,000 per year. 1.25 million properties may be required to just to stand still.

Posted by libertas @ 05:21 AM 20 Comments

Notes on a Micro Bubble

Guardian: Towns the UK property boom forgot: 'We sold at a £410,000 loss'

Textbook bubble story: "this was autumn 2007, and this was Northern Ireland. For a brief moment in time a province that was a byword for violence transformed itself into the world’s most sizzling property market. Builders who were knocking out small estates of semis initially priced at £120,000 were selling them for £200,000 on completion six months later. Investors from the Celtic Tiger south were driving north and snapping up anything they could lay their hands on. Banks were falling over themselves to lend."

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:54 AM 2 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 15 £268,000 N/A 7.20 Tick£274,000
(Aug 14)
2.1914/04/2015
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Mar 15 £275,123 0.20 5.60 Cross£280,733
(Nov 14)
2.0017/04/2015 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Mar 15 £192,970 0.40 8.10 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
3.4009/04/2015 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Apr 15 N/A 0.90 6.50 Cross N/A N/A 14/04/2015 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Sep 14 N/A 0.00 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 26/09/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report 29/08/15 Feb 15 £180,252 0.50 6.50 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
3.1127/03/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Mar 15 £189,454 0.10 5.10 TickThis monthN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £281,752 1.00 5.40 TickThis monthN/A16/03/2015 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 15 £490,000 N/A N/A 9.40 Tick£514,000
(Jul 14)
4.6714/04/2015
Halifax House Price Index Q4 14 £356,054 N/A N/A 14.50 CrossThis quarterN/A08/01/2015 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report 29/08/15 Feb 15 £463,872 0.60 N/A 13.10 TickThis monthN/A27/03/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 15 £408,780 N/A 1.00 12.70 CrossThis quarterN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £580,308 0.40 N/A 5.50 Tick£601,180
(Nov 14)
3.4716/03/2015 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive