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Keynesian Stimulus In Action Before The Industrial Revolution
1631 Florence during the depression bought on by the plague.   "The Grand D...

«A Global Recession Is Inevitable»
    Charles Biderman, founder of the research firm TrimTabs spots a ...

Housing Crisis
Radio 4 now....

Right To Buy For The Private Rental Sector
Ok, I don't expect anyone to take this seriously but please sign if you feel so ...

Tax Breaks And Buy-To-Let-Expansion
'In response to the figures, Campbell Robb, Shelter’s chief executive, sai...

Are They Going To Start Prosecuting Bankers Now?
So suddenly we see a real, live, individual being taken to court for rigging of ...

Telegraph: The Great Rural Fightback: Meet The Villagers Turning Down Millions From Developers
The NIMBYs are out in force in Sussex.   In a picturesque corner of West Su...

Rightmove Bingo: ! House ! ( Sutton Coldfield )
First rightmove bingo for a LOOOOOONG TIME   ^1298&maxPrice=800000&maxDaysS...

Quick House Buyers ( Northampton )
Was driving down the wellingborough road in Northampton yesterday only to be con...

If House Price Forecasts Are On The Money It Will Become "unaffordable To Exist" In Britain
    If house prices surge again without a radical increase in new h...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Wednesday, May 27 2015 Add a News Blog Article

A family or a house - your choice

Torygraph: Pregnant women 'unfairly' denied mortgages over child costs

It is sensible for banks to look at mortgagees costs but under the UK's tax system whereby single income households are taxed at a much higher rate than dual income ones, more and more couples have to choose between having children or ever owning a home. The only way to escape single income punitive rates is to become a contractor under a limited company and distribute dividends to the non-working spouse, but this just about rules you out for a mortgage anyway. Quite a few people who I worked with have done this, but they all have lots of home equity and/or long fixed rates so can sit and chomp down the mortgage. After a few years of contracting banks will look at you again, but with caution as they don't have a permanent pay cheque to trouser.

Posted by mombers @ 02:48 PM 1 Comments

Positive Duration Dependence

Telegraph: HSBC fears world recession with no lifeboats left

It's pretty clear that this blog has attracted doomers (myself included) who have been too negative in their outlook but some financial commentators are a bit worried: "Stephen King from HSCB warns that the global authorities have alarmingly few tools to combat the next crunch, given that interest rates are already zero across most of the developed world, debts levels are at or near record highs, and there is little scope for fiscal stimulus. 'The world economy is sailing across the ocean without any lifeboats to use in case of emergency,' he said." Perhaps we'll be fine but further financial stimulus could be tricky.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:01 AM 6 Comments

Bbubbles are social-psychological phenomena, so are naturally difficult to control.

Guardian: Speculative bubbles dont just pop

A speculative bubble is a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increase." This attracts "a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about the real value of the investment, are drawn to it partly through envy of others' successes and partly through a gambler's excitement."

Posted by debtserf @ 10:09 AM 7 Comments

Just a shortage of affordable houses

MoneyWeek: The UK doesnt have a housing shortage

That there is a chronic shortage of housing in this country has become a sacred shibboleth. Politicians make solemn pledges to build 200,000 more homes by some vague future date to offset this supposed shortage. But the market is still way off the volumes of previous decades. Is there really a shortage of property in this country, and is this the main factor in ever increasing prices? Merryn doesnt seem to think so.

Posted by debtserf @ 12:46 PM 11 Comments

Tristram Hunt ducks out of leadership race after discovering he's a Tory

Thedailymash: Tristram Hunt ducks out of leadership race after discovering he's a Tory

"TRISTRAM Hunt will not stand in the Labour leadership contest after finding out he was actually a Conservative all along."

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:04 PM 1 Comments

Steve Keen debunks naive austerity economics of Lab, Lib and Con

Every Investor: Steve Keen criticises naïve austerity economics

If the government is to run a surplus to pay down national debt, it does so by reducing private sector savings. So a permanent surplus policy involves economic contraction or increasing private debt (which eventually can't be sustained). Simples, with a minor caveat about velocity of circulation. The only thing I'd take issue with is his claim that increasing public sector deficit is expansionary - it depends how the finance is raised, and in the UK it's generally through the bond market, and such that no new credit is created.

Posted by nickb @ 06:08 PM 5 Comments

UK now in deflation - apart from average house prices

FT: UK slips into deflation as prices fall 0.1%

The price level has fallen, for the first time since ...? A blip into that territory in 2008 and before that the 1930s great depression. There is good deflation and bad deflation. The difference is not really explained, but here in the UK it is believed to be good deflation. Is good deflation that with a Union Jack on it, I wonder? To read the article, type the source title into google.

Posted by nickb @ 05:17 PM 13 Comments

Thought house prices could only ever go up

BBC: China's new home prices fall for eighth month

The price of new homes in China fell for the eighth consecutive month in April, showing the property sector continues to be a major drag on the world's second-largest economy. The average price in China's 70 major cities fell 6.1% from a year ago - the same rate of decline as in March. A large inventory of unsold homes is weighing on the once red-hot market. The property sector accounts for about 20% of China's economy, according to economists.

Posted by mark @ 11:46 AM 7 Comments

Bizarre news

CNN: Miami gets a taxpayer-funded homeless poop map

A fight over Miami's homeless population and public restrooms has resulted in a taxpayer-funded poop map.

Posted by mark @ 09:58 AM 0 Comments

No figures for renters and no mention of the growing liability that anyone wanting to move up faces.

Torygraph: Families 20 per cent richer than last year

"House price hikes have been a big factor behind this, with a 9% rise in average property values last year, according to the report, which found 39% of total household wealth is now held in bricks and mortar" Anyone whose next move is to a more expensive house has been negatively affected by rising house prices. My family has seen our hopes of ever 'trading up' from a flat to a house disintegrate as our paper gain on our flat is wiped out and then some by the bigger increase in price of anything nicer than it. And then renters... unless you have a fat wad of other assets, you're falling even further behind than someone on the bottom 99% of the mythical 'ladder'

Posted by mombers @ 12:09 PM 6 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 15 £268,000 N/A 7.20 Tick£274,000
(Aug 14)
2.1914/04/2015
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Mar 15 £275,123 0.20 5.60 Cross£280,733
(Nov 14)
2.0017/04/2015 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Mar 15 £192,970 0.40 8.10 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
3.4009/04/2015 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Apr 15 N/A 0.90 6.50 Cross N/A N/A 14/04/2015 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Sep 14 N/A 0.00 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 26/09/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report 29/08/15 Feb 15 £180,252 0.50 6.50 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
3.1127/03/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Mar 15 £189,454 0.10 5.10 TickThis monthN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £281,752 1.00 5.40 TickThis monthN/A16/03/2015 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 15 £490,000 N/A N/A 9.40 Tick£514,000
(Jul 14)
4.6714/04/2015
Halifax House Price Index Q4 14 £356,054 N/A N/A 14.50 CrossThis quarterN/A08/01/2015 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report 29/08/15 Feb 15 £463,872 0.60 N/A 13.10 TickThis monthN/A27/03/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 15 £408,780 N/A 1.00 12.70 CrossThis quarterN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £580,308 0.40 N/A 5.50 Tick£601,180
(Nov 14)
3.4716/03/2015 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive