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Tuesday, Sep 27 2016 Add a News Blog Article

London attraction fading

Guardian: Rising London house prices spark departure of thirtysomethings

The number of thirtysomethings leaving London has leapt in recent years as high housing costs have forced people to move out of the capital, according to campaigners.

Posted by tom101 @ 10:30 PM 0 Comments

Chomsky heart attack

Telegrapch: World-leaders-cannot-match-market-forces-for-power/

Repeated so often that it seems true, is the mantra that lower sterling helps exports, even though the manufacturers in the UK are free to set their own prices... I looked at gbp yen today and its 130, i have never seen it so low, and I just wonder what is the point of transferring all the purchasing power for uk assets to foreign currency holders abroad? how can it possibly help? the UK from previous (and ongoing) asset sales now has a persistent current account deficit but the boe keeps on going..and they will -keep on- going until they are forced to respond to a wage spiral but because their cr*ppy policies don't work we won't get one. i have given up on sterling its the most useless currency in the world.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:54 AM 2 Comments

A complex market

Telegraph: Safe as houses? Not in this fast, volatile market

"Property owners have also developed a hyper-sensitivity to the socio-political climate. It’s a dangerous mindset in a market powered by shifts in sentiment rather than economic reality. Article 50 has not been activated to exit the European Union and yet housing chains started to collapse in the aftermath of the vote."

Posted by tom101 @ 06:43 PM 0 Comments

Buyer enquiries and sales instructions continue to slip

RICS: Expectations continue to recover

To counter the puff pieces regularly posted here ... like the two below ... a small increase in prices according to the latest (Aug) RICS survey on the back of very low and falling volumes of sales.

Posted by nickb @ 09:17 AM 0 Comments

Housing market picking up again....

Telegraph: Housing market picks up speed in August - as Help to Buy scheme fades

Mortgage lending climbed sharply in August, reversing the post-referendum fall in July and taking the market to its highest summer level since 2007.

Posted by tom101 @ 01:26 PM 4 Comments

Falling mortgage rates - No better time to buy....

Telegraph: Home buyers set to enjoy mortgage rates below 1pc

Interest rates on typical mortgages could fall below 1pc in the coming months in an unprecedented boost for home buyers, according to analysts at Bernstein Research.

Posted by tom101 @ 03:55 PM 13 Comments

Eliminate bankers, transaction costs, speculation and bank runs

Web of Debt: Central bank digital currencies : A revolution in banking

Central banking in the Cloud, one clearing house, one lender and all of the above. And the BoE is moving towards part of this new banking world, where it would be more difficult to get loans for speculation since leveraging of credit through re- hypothecation of credit in the repo market (where several parties apparently own the same asset at the same time when in reality only one of them holds it) would be eliminated. Link in article succinctly explains repo market.

Posted by icarus @ 10:04 AM 2 Comments

Maybe not inflation

Torygraph: Why is the UK's money supply surging?

Article suggests that the sudden growth of the money supply will result in inflation, and that the BoE rely on consequences of Brexit instead of rate rises. However, imo, " But they suddenly engaged in a reverse ferret, increasing their holdings of cash by an annualised 70pc over the past three month" the dash to cash by fund managers, or this kind of static creation of cash from financial instruments, could also mean that people are getting ready for an across the board drop in prices and want to be ready. As has been reported generally, the BoE is running out of easing measures. Anyway I don't know but it looks like whichever one we end up with of the two alternatives is coming up soonish.

Posted by stillthinking @ 03:31 AM 11 Comments

Surely banks have ventured here before

Reuters: Exclusive: Goldman team uses retail deposits for Wall Street-style profits

Banks boosting profits using the funds from retail accounts on Wall St. should ring a few alarm bells, shouldn't it?

Posted by enuii @ 06:35 PM 1 Comments

Mortgage availability

Telegraph: First-time buyers hit by Brexit as high-value mortgages dry up

'This reflects lenders' growing concern that the housing market could falter in the wake of the EU referendum, brokers say. High loan-to-value mortgages (where the loan represents a high proportion of the price paid) are risky, as they expose the lender and property owner to potential negative equity if prices fall.'

Posted by tom101 @ 11:50 AM 4 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £292,000 N/A 7.90 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Feb 16 £289,229 0.80 6.20 Cross£292,077
(Dec 15)
0.9810/03/2016 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Feb 16 £209,495 1.40 9.70 TickThis monthN/A03/03/2016 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Mar 16 N/A 0.90 7.90 Cross N/A N/A 11/03/2016 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jan 16 N/A 0.50 7.80 Cross N/A N/A 26/02/2016
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £190,275 0.20 6.10 Tick£191,812
(Jan 16)
0.8030/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Apr 16 £202,436 0.20 4.90 TickThis monthN/A02/05/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £303,190 1.30 7.60 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £551,000 N/A N/A 10.80 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
Halifax House Price Index Q4 15 £416,163 N/A N/A 16.40 CrossThis quarterN/A01/01/2016 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £530,368 0.60 N/A 13.50 Tick£530,409
(Jan 16)
0.0130/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 16 £455,984 N/A 1.20 11.50 Cross£456,229
(Q4 15)
0.0504/04/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £644,045 0.00 N/A 11.00 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.

Predictions archive