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The Real Target Is Deflation
Been on this site what nearly fourteen and a half years. STR in 2005, paid the p...

Is 0% The Correct Value For The Risk Free Nominal Rate?
A quick thought to complement the 'here to stay' thread.   Wind back to the...

Mumsnet Gold
I don't usually go on mumsnet, only see stuff that's been posted here. I had spa...

Greece- Not A Morality Tale But A Tale Of Immorality.
(mostly) German spokesmen promote a view of the Greeks current problems as a sim...

Brace For A House Price Crash And You Won't Get Caught Out
  even the land of mad max has finally seen the light  ...

Adam Applegarth (Former Northern Rock Ceo) Takes Another Finance Job
Conehead *******   The former chief executive of Northern Rock, the compa...

Land Reg December 2014
Here's a snapshot of how the property market looked three months ago  https...

Nationwide January 2015 +0.3
YoY down to 6.8%NSA figure MoM pretty much close to flatAnnual house price growt...

Danske Bank ?
anyone use this bank    they are paying 1.75% on isa`s for deposits of...

Banker End Game Out In The Open Thanks To Greece.
As if anyone hadn't already guessed, "Mr Carney said sharing a currency without...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Friday, Jan 30 2015 Add a News Blog Article

Boris stumps up

Taxjournal.com: London Mayor settles US tax bill

Why anyone in their right mind would want dual US nationality is beyond me. It is a bit like herpes.

Posted by vinrouge @ 05:17 PM 0 Comments

QE's dismal track record

Kylos Productions: Eurozone QE reignites global currency war

Shows the track record of QE in the UK, US and Japan in failing to generate growth, jobs and incomes or to prevent deflation and succeeding in inflating asset bubbles and capital income - mentions London property - and in aggravating global inequality and currency wars. In fact the QE effect on growth is negative since it redirects investment into financial speculation. It has led also to currency wars as others respond to the currency-weakening effect of QE (Switzerland's response catered for global investors using it as a tax haven and money-laundering shop). The dearth of real investment means that these wars are about countries stealing each other's growth/export trade when the pie itself is shrinking (including de facto devaluation within the €zone by cutting costs, i.e. wages).

Posted by icarus @ 12:56 PM 7 Comments

The dangers of pricing London as if it's a landlocked peninsula like Manhattan, Hong Kong etc.

FT: Londkn faces surfeit of expensive new homes

Most of the new homes being built are two-bedroom apartments in high-rise towers and many are being sold to “unsophisticated” foreign investors, said Charlie Ellingworth, the founder of Property Vision. “It is unlikely that investors are going to see the sort of yields that they have been led to expect,” Mr Ellingworth warned. “The pool of buyers may extend to the whole of China, but the pool of tenants is pretty static.” The owner of a £1m, two-bed flat would need to charge £30,000 to £40,000 a year in rent in order to make a gross return on their money of 3 to 4 per cent, Mr Ellingworth said. “There are not many people in London who can afford that.”

Posted by sneaker @ 11:44 AM 2 Comments

...

Bloomberg: Mortgage Battle Flares as U.K. Homebuying Loses Allure

Stricter affordability tests and loan-to-income restrictions are weighing on the U.K. housing market. In London, where house values have risen 50 percent in five years, prices are now falling.

Posted by cornishman @ 12:16 PM 0 Comments

Cost to build: 10m Sale price: 3.4m - the real face of deflation?

Mail: Scotland’s most expensive modern home that backs on to Gleneagles is up for sale for £3.4million

The property had originally cost £10million to build and is thought to be Scotland's most expensive modern home Built in 2007, it boasts a gymnasium, cinema, spa, a two-bedroom house, billiards room and a man-made lake Its previous owner is former Rangers FC shareholder Graham Gillespie who went bankrupt in 2012

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:01 PM 5 Comments

On The Market opens tomorrow

Guardian: New property portal challenges duopoly of Rightmove and Zoopla

Homeowners who want to sell their properties are being warned that from tomorrow they could miss out on potential buyers, as thousands of estate agents will stop listing homes on either Rightmove or Zoopla. A serious challenger to the two sites, onthemarket.com, goes live on Monday and agents who sign up to it will do so on the condition that they stop listing on one of the other two property portals. Between them Rightmove and Zoopla get 100m hits a month. How will this site impact the current market?

Posted by debtserf @ 12:13 PM 9 Comments

What is in store when we follow suit, as promised by Carney

Comparis.ch: Mortgage interest rates: new historic all-time low

Interest rates on the Swiss mortgage market continue to drop. The year 2014 started out with a surprise: in the first quarter of the year, the interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages sank again – after an interim high in the previous year. - 10-year fixed-rate mortgages started at 2.7 percent in January 2014 and reached a new, historic low of 1.8 percent by the end of the year. - 5-year fixed-rate mortgages exhibited a similar curve. Their interest rates were at 1.8 percent at the beginning of the year and likewise dropped to an all-time low of 1.3 percent at the end of December. They currently are at the same level as 1-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Posted by libertas @ 06:34 PM 0 Comments

Mark Carney opens window for rate cut + QE

Telegraph: Mark Carney warns of liquidity storm as global currency system turns upside down

Quote: The Governor vowed to bring inflation back to its 2pc target after it dropped to 0.5pc in December, and may soon go negative by some estimates. "We have a very low inflation environment right now, largely caused by commodity prices," he said. Mr Carney said the Bank will "look through" the latest dip but do WHATEVER IT TAKES to meet its mandate over the next two years. "WE HAVE THE MEANS, AND THE WILL, and the responsibility (Moral high horse) to do it, and WE WILL DO IT. People can rely on that," he said. And for all those of you banking on rate rise and house price crash, it ain't gonna happen for a good few years yet. 1992 & 2008 only happen every 17yrs or so.

Posted by libertas @ 06:25 PM 7 Comments

The great rotation becomes exponential

Uk.investing: US Dollar Index spikes to 95. 120 next? Dow 25,000 here we come

The Swiss set it off. Now EU QE has set the tone for the next move. It is however clear that €1tn will not solve Europe's dissipative forces, demonstrating that further easing is on the way, and Euro weakness has a way to go. Some say it needs €3tn, but is that figure not exponential without Eurozone wide debt pooling that Germany will never agree to? And so this spike in the US Dollar index, soaring Sterling, Krona, Swissie & stocks have a way to go, with Eurozone bond holders continuing to position themselves for Eurozone collapse by investing in the bonds of stronger EU economies. London property, from Euroland, looks a great investment for wealthy Europeans who require an EU base & relatively low taxes, with values rising a few percent a day now for them as the Euro plummets.

Posted by libertas @ 01:23 PM 21 Comments

The Great Unwinding

MoneyWeek: UK house prices could fall 50%

"We’ve seen price falls in the housing market in the past in the early ‘90s and they went down 50%, and I think that we’re at the start of that kind of decline now – as I think, indeed, fairly soon we will be at the start of that in the stock market as well. As I say, I’m not depressed about this, because it’s just something that we have to go through to get to reality." Bold prediction, but we deported reality from these shores a long time ago, and I'm not sure she will ever be allowed back in.

Posted by debtserf @ 12:07 PM 13 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £262,000 N/A 10.50 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Jun 14 £268,637 0.70 9.60 CrossThis monthN/A11/07/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 14 £183,462 0.60 8.80 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
8.1609/07/2014 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jul 14 N/A 0.57 9.56 Cross N/A N/A 15/07/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jul 14 N/A 0.10 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 25/07/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £172,011 0.00 6.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
7.5428/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jul 14 £188,949 0.10 10.60 TickThis monthN/A31/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £270,159 0.80 6.50 Tick£272,275
(Jun 14)
0.7821/07/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £492,000 N/A N/A 20.10 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q2 14 £330,315 N/A N/A 15.90 CrossThis quarterN/A04/07/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £437,608 0.10 N/A 16.40 Tick£439,719
(May 14)
0.4828/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 14 £400,404 N/A 7.60 25.80 CrossThis quarterN/A02/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £587,174 0.40 N/A 13.90 Tick£592,763
(May 14)
0.9421/07/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive