The highlights on this website

Have your say in our popular discussion forum
Check out the latest House Price Statistics
See the predictions for UK House Prices
Read economic papers on the House Price Crash subject

'Must read/watch' external links

Don't believe the Estate Agents! Visit OurProperty.co.uk to find out the actual sold house prices direct from the Land Registry database
See real price reductions in your area, visit www.propertysnake.co.uk
UK Property Podcast: how low will it go? (mp3 - 13.6Mb - 59 minutes)

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An overview of what's happening with house prices in your area with the BBC
Forgotten the last crash? Watch the spitting image video on YouTube
George Soros speaks about a hard landing for US house prices on YouTube
Visit the first-time buyer campaigning website www.pricedout.org.uk
UK Housing - Moon-Bound or Pear-Shaped?
ABN Amro report - "...the UK housing market could be more vulnerable to a correction than the US" (PDF - 162kb)
Chris Parker's excellent house price crash flash movie

Thursday, Aug 28, 2008

Sounds familiar

Times: Mortgage rescue at the ready as property slump gets even worse

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, and Caroline Flint, the Housing Minister, are planning to announce an emergency “mortgage rescue” package next week. Under the plans councils will be encouraged to offer low-income families at risk of repossession the chance to sell a stake of their houses in return for financial help. First-time buyers will also be given council-backed assistance with deposits and town halls will be given extra money to buy up empty unsold new-build properties from developers. A more radical proposal under which councils would have competed as mortgage lenders has been vetoed by Darling.

Posted by little professor @ 11:08 PM 0 Comments

What recession?

FT: Stocks rally on surprise US GDP boost

Woes of the US sub-prime meltdown have been with us for the best part of 18-24 months but the US is still resolute in not tipping into a technical recession. It's fair to say that the US is certainly not out of the woods yet but this data will provide a much needed boost to an economy that many doomsayers proclaim as being on its knees.

Posted by denzil @ 10:19 PM 0 Comments

Interesting development across the Irish Sea

4NI.co.uk: NI Developer Cuts House Prices By 40%

A Northern Ireland building firm has slashed its house prices by almost 40%, in a fresh bid to inject life into the ailing property market. Fraser Homes has trimmed £90,000 off the price of its semi-detached properties in Glengormley, reducing the price from £229,500 to £139,950.

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:41 PM 6 Comments

Dont be fooled by

CNN: The economic growth mirage

Sure, the economy grew at a decent clip in the second quarter. But economists say the gain may be temporary and warn of tougher times ahead.

Posted by mark @ 09:14 PM 1 Comments

Lehman to lay off 1,500

CNN: Lehman to lay off 1,500

The troubled investment bank's plans to shed up to 6% of its workforce amid a slumping stock price, concerns about its future.

Posted by mark @ 09:12 PM 0 Comments

Brace Brace Brace for more bad news on petrol prices...

CNN: Gulf oil braces for Gustav

With Tropical Storm Gustav setting its sights on the Gulf of Mexico, oil facilities in the region are facing their first major threat since 2005, when Hurricanes Rita and Katrina knocked out nearly every barrel of oil production and sent prices soaring to then-record levels.

Posted by mark @ 09:12 PM 0 Comments

My local EA is selling more than that!

Times Online: Sales at Taylor Wimpey sites slump to half a house a week

Taylor Wimpey is selling less than half a house a week on each of its sites despite offering incentives with its new homes, it emerged yesterday. See also: http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/pdfs/taylor_wimpey.pdf

Posted by whostolemyendowment @ 06:35 PM 0 Comments

Someone deport this guy

Telegraph: MPC dove Blanchflower to vote for rate cut

Blanchflower indicated he would be calling for interest rates to be cut by more than 25 basis points at next week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Mr Blanchflower said his earlier forecast that house prices could fall by 30pc was looking optimistic and that the jobless total could soon touch two million as construction companies and banks lay off workers. The US-based academic, who has called for lower interest rates for 10 months in a row, said the UK could learn from Federal Reserve's prompt action and interest rates should be much lower than 5pc as a matter of urgency. "I've obviously voted on quite a number of occasions now for small cuts but we need to act and we probably need to act in larger amounts than that."

Posted by little professor @ 05:28 PM 25 Comments

Lex is a big bear - a BIG bear!

FT - Lex: Bleak Houses

The pace of collapse reflects, in order of significance, the ludicrous valuations ahead of last October’s peak, a fundamental shift in buyer psychology, and credit withdrawal by lenders. The average house price is now 11.5 per cent down from the summit in nominal terms. Economists forecasting 35 per cent peak-to-trough nominal falls, once outliers, are rapidly finding themselves rejoining mainstream opinion.

Posted by james @ 03:50 PM 0 Comments

The fall is now a crash!!

Aboutproperty.co.uk: When does a fall become a crash?

The torrent of negative news for the UK property market continued unabated today, leading analysts to question – is this now a house price crash? What's the evidence? Figures from the Nationwide released today illustrate the scale of the problem now facing the market. Average property prices have fallen across the UK by 10.5 per cent over the course of the last year, and what's more the pace of decline is accelerating. While prices fell by an already dramatic 1.5 per cent in July, this accelerated to 1.9 per cent in August, with activity "very subdued", according to Nationwide.

Posted by housebear @ 03:15 PM 7 Comments

Add a News Blog Article

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website	Period covered	Average house price	Monthly change (%)	Annual change (%)	Peak average house price	Change since peak (%)	Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index	Jun 08	£215,029	N/A	0.60	£221,758 (Jan 08)	3.03	12/08/2008
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics)	Jul 08	£226,292	0.50	0.30	£231,595 (Feb 08)	2.29	08/08/2008 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index	Jul 08	£177,351	1.70	8.80	£199,770 (Aug 07)	11.22	07/08/2008 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales)	Aug 08	N/A	0.60	2.00	N/A	N/A	12/08/2008 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey	Jul 08	N/A	1.20	4.40	N/A	N/A	30/07/2008
Land Registry Monthly Report	Jun 08	£180,781	1.00	0.10	£186,045 (Jan 08)	2.83	28/07/2008 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index	Aug 08	£164,654	1.90	10.50	£186,044 (Oct 07)	11.50	28/08/2008 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index	Aug 08	£229,816	2.30	4.80	£242,500 (May 08)	5.23	18/08/2008 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website	Period covered	Average house price	Monthly change (%)	Quarterly change (%)	Annual change (%)	Peak average house price	Change since peak (%)	Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index	Jun 08	£336,545	N/A	N/A	1.40	£351,096 (Jan 08)	4.14	12/08/2008
Halifax House Price Index	Q2 08	£291,533	N/A	4.30	7.30	£320,847 (Q3 07)	9.14	25/07/2008 (WORD)
Land Registry Monthly Report	Jun 08	£345,136	2.50	N/A	2.40	£357,976 (Jan 08)	3.59	28/07/2008 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index	Q2 08	£285,568	N/A	3.80	2.30	£303,739 (Q4 07)	5.98	01/07/2008 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index	Aug 08	£379,162	5.30	N/A	3.80	£412,731 (Nov 07)	8.13	18/08/2008 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

Source website	Analyst	Photo	Date prediction made	Amount predicted	Region	Time Period	Notes
National Housing Federation	David Orr		Jul 2008	25%	UK	2008-2013	National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	7-9 %	UK	2010-2013	Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Allied Surveyors	Grant Robertson	N/A	Jan 2008	5-7 %	Scotland	2008	Amidst all the doom and gloom, Allied Surveyors are expecting Scottish house prices to increase above inflation in 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	4%	Scotland	2008	Nationwide believes Scotland will be the strongest performing region next year.
Savills	Lucian Cook		Dec 2007	4%	Scotland	2008	Savills also thinks prices in Scotland will rise by 4 per cent in 2008.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	Scotland	2008	Hometrack is forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Scotland for 2008.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	Northern Ireland	2008	Hometrack is also forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Northern Ireland for 2008.
Knight Frank	Liam Bailey	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	London Prime	2008	Knight Frank's view is that prime London will cease to lead the UK market for the first time for two years.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Aug 2007	1-2 %	UK	2008	Hometrack sees near stagnation in the UK housing market for 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	1%	London	2008	Nationwide is forecasting 1 per cent growth in London house prices this year.
Savills	Lucian Cook		Dec 2007	1%	Wales	2008	Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.
brightsale.co.uk	Jeremy Howard	N/A	Aug 2008	0%	UK	2008-2009	New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lombard Street Research	Diana Choyleva		Oct 2007	0%	UK	2008	Ms Choyleva believes that the recent Northern Rock crisis will be the final straw for the UK housing market.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Nov 2007	0%	UK	2008	Britain's biggest building society predicts stagnation and says that economic tailwinds will turn into headwinds.
Rightmove.co.uk	Miles Shipside		Dec 2007	0%	UK	2008	Miles Shipside expects a "period of stagnation" for prices in 2008, with most sellers still able to decide whether or not to drop their asking price.
United Trust Bank	Roger Tidyman	N/A	Jan 2008	0%	UK	2008	Roger Tidyman expects modest price falls in the first half of the year with some recovery in the second half of 2008 resulting in flat overall growth for 2008.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	1-3 %	UK	2009	Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Charcol.co.uk	Ray Boulger		Dec 2007	2%	UK	2008	Mortgage broker John Charcol predicts that property transactions will fall by 15 per cent in 2008, gross mortgage lending will fall from £360bn to £320bn but house prices will only fall by 2%.
CEBR	N/A	N/A	Jan 2008	3%	UK	2008	The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), forecast that average property prices will drop by 2.5% during 2008.
Knight Frank	Liam Bailey	N/A	Apr 2008	3%	UK	2008	Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.
UBS	Amit Kara & Sunil Kapadia	N/A	Jan 2008	3%	UK	2008	UBS Economists say that the key issue for the housing market is "whether there will be a slow burn in house prices or whether there is scope for a hard landing.
BBC	Evan Davis		Dec 2007	5-10 %	UK	2008	Evan Davis expects that house prices will continue to fall, by 5-10% over the year. He also doesn't rule out the possibility of the falls being much bigger.
Capital Economics	Roger Bootle		Oct 2007	5%	UK	2008	Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast yet again.
Lloyds TSB	Eric Daniels		Jul 2008	5%	UK	2009	Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	5%	Northern Ireland	2008	Nationwide is expecting Northern Ireland to be the weakest part of the country during 2008.
RICS	Simon Rubinsohn		May 2008	5%	UK	2008	Another revised forecast from RICS.
UK Government	Caroline Flint		May 2008	5-10 %	UK	2008	Caroline Flint, the Housing minister, inadvertently revealed that house price could fall up to 10% this year "at best".
Council of Mortgage Lenders	Michael Coogan		May 2008	7%	UK	2008	A substantial revised forecast from CML predicting a 7% fall in UK house prices this year.
Global Insight	Howard Archer		Apr 2008	7%	UK	2008	A revised prediction downwards by Global Insight.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	7-9 %	UK	2008	In a new forecast for the residential market, the estate agency predicts that the economy will progressively weaken over the course of the year.
Invesco Perpetual	Neil Woodford		Jan 2008	8-10 %	UK	2008	Neil Woodford, goes further than his prediction to say that areas which have seen a concentration of speculative development and buying, such as regional metropolitan centres, could be subject to much sharper falls.
Global Insight	Howard Archer		Apr 2008	9%	UK	2009	A revised prediction downwards by Global Insight.
Halifax	Martin Ellis	N/A	Jun 2008	9%	UK	2008	Halifax had earlier predicted that the decline would be less severe.
Institute of Economic Affairs	Philip Booth	N/A	Jan 2008	10%	UK	2008	Mr Booth says that more falls are possible after 2008 but also says that this should not affect the economy greatly as long as monetary policy is conducted appropriately.
Lloyds TSB	Eric Daniels		Jul 2008	10-15 %	UK	2008	Lloyds TSB wrote one in every four new mortgages in the six months to June but still predicts a 10-15% house price crash.
FirstRung.co.uk	Paul Holmes	N/A	Nov 2007	12%	UK	2008	The mortgage broker, firstrung said that predictions of gentle slowdowns were off the mark.
MarketOracle.co.uk	Nadeem Walayat	N/A	Aug 2007	15%	UK	2007-2009	Market Oracle believe that the crash will be led by the buy to let sector jumping ship.
Fool.co.uk	David Kuo	N/A	Dec 2007	20%	UK	2008	David Kuo believes that the average price of a house could fall by up to a fifth to £157,290 in 2008.
London School of Economics	John Van Reenen		Jan 2008	20%	UK	2008-2009	John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
Morgan Stanley	David Miles		Mar 2008	20%	UK	2008-2009	David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Savills	Jeremy Helsby	N/A	Jul 2008	25%	London	2008-2009	The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
Boom Bust	Fred Harrison		Jan 2008	30%	UK	2008-2012	Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of Economics	Willem Buiter	N/A	Jan 2008	30%	UK	2008-2009	Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Numis Securities	James Hamilton	N/A	Mar 2008	30%	UK	Not stated	James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Deloitte	Roger Bootle		Jul 2008	33%	UK	2008-2010	Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
Capital Economics	Roger Bootle		Jun 2008	35%	UK	2008-2010	Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Housepricecrash.co.uk	Jonathan Davis		Sep 2007	35%	UK	2008-2012	In our view, history and economics leads us to believe that the boom is over and there will be a gradual and cumulative fall annually from this point forward.

Predictions archive