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David Cameron: Uk Property No Safe Haven For 'dirty Money'
David Cameron: UK property no safe haven for 'dirty money' - At least gets the ...

For Those Interested In Bitcoin
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Tide Has Turned - Bbc 1 Housing Enforcers
BBC1 prime time show on now following council housing officers dealing with slum...

Versace Designed Flats In London
Sorry if posted elsewhere...     Surely another sign the top has been...

Is This A Safe Bet...
I've now saved enough to buy a house (not my main residence, nice area) without ...

Btl: From Gordon With Love
One of the fun stupid arguments that I've been entertained by as reconnaissance ...

The Corbynomics Thread
Someone has been brushing up on their MMT!   To whit:     I know...

Who Buys These Things?
I've been looking at property in Bristol recently, and have been coming across m...

Central Banks Ready To Panic — Again / Deflation Is Winning – Beware!
    Less than a decade after a housing/derivatives bubble nearly wip...

The Housing Market Still Isn’t Rational - Allow Short Selling...
    Home prices have been climbing. They have risen 27 percent natio...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Tuesday, Jul 28 2015 Add a News Blog Article

Living space is a commodity

Guardian: David Cameron vows to fight against 'dirty money' in UK property market

I am heartened that our PM speaks but WTF! You couldn't make this stuff up. "One in 10 properties in the City of Westminster, central London, are estimated to be owned by companies registered in an offshore secrecy jurisdiction, according to Transparency International figures provided by Downing Street, while £120bn worth of properties in England and Wales are owned offshore." Only the little people think property is for living in.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:47 AM 0 Comments

Grinding Down the Renters

Notayesmanseconomics's Blog: UK house prices and rents are becoming ever more unaffordable

Another dissection of the Bank of England's role in the property market. 'Thus we see that house prices in real terms were increasing by 5/6% more than wages in annualised terms meaning that real wages in this area are falling considerably. Here we come to a very difficult area for the Bank of England as it was its Funding for (Mortgage) Lending Scheme or FLS which put a light under house prices via lower mortgage rates. This began in July 2012 so the majority of the current Monetary Policy Committee have skin in this particular game which is perhaps why house price rises are not at the forefront of their thinking at least according to the official records! I have never understood why making houses more expensive for first time buyers is regularly reported as “Help” for them.'

Posted by quiet guy @ 02:09 PM 0 Comments

Ello' ello' ello' what's all this going on ere then ?

BBC: Foreign criminals 'driving up UK house prices'

Foreign criminals are laundering billions of pounds through the purchase of expensive properties, which is pushing up house prices in the UK, the National Crime Agency has said. Its economic crime command director, Donald Toon, told the Times that London prices had been "skewed" as a result. He said prices were being artificially driven up by criminals "who want to sequester their assets here in the UK".

Posted by jack c @ 10:41 AM 4 Comments

A temporary rise until the economy goes down again?

Telegraph: End of cheap mortgage boom as big banks raise rates

Stampede for fixed mortgages expected as Barclays and Santander increase rates and borrowers scramble to beat the winter Bank of England rate rise. Banks and building societies will begin to withdraw their best mortgage deals next week as home owners scramble to beat the rise in interest rates this winter.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:23 PM 12 Comments

The Bankruptcy Of The Planet Accelerates – 24 Nations Are Currently Facing A Debt Crisis And And The

Investment Watch Blog: Full Blown Global Debt Crisis

There has been so much attention on Greece in recent weeks, but the truth is that Greece represents only a very tiny fraction of an unprecedented global debt bomb which threatens to explode at any moment. As you are about to see, there are 24 nations that are currently facing a full-blown debt crisis, and there are 14 more that are rapidly heading toward one. Right now, the debt to GDP ratio for the entire planet is up to an all-time record high of 286 percent, and globally there is approximately 200 TRILLION dollars of debt on the books.

Posted by lvmreader @ 11:02 AM 25 Comments

Deposits dominate?

Liberty Street Economics: How Sensitive Is Housing Demand to Down Payment Requirements and Mortgage Rates?

Liberty Street Economics seems to be a blog for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The article explains some American research that suggests that property buyers are more influenced by deposit requirements than interest rates: "The price of available financing (that is, the mortgage rate) may play a less important role than commonly thought." Long term blog readers may recall some statistical investigation by another contributor to this site who found that the correlation between UK house prices and interest rates was surprisingly low. The implications are also significant w.r.t. UK government policy. Deposit boosting schemes such as 'Help to Buy' may affect the market more than ZIRP. Hat tip to 'northshore' on the forums.

Posted by quiet guy @ 11:55 PM 9 Comments

Large screen TVs now a safe haven for cash

Guardian: Dixons Carphone profits rise 21% amid Greek panic buying

Dixons Carphone has reported a 21% rise in profits, in part helped by Greeks panic buying big-ticket items such as large-screen TVs as a safe haven for their cash amid the ongoing economic crisis in the country

Posted by mark @ 10:48 AM 5 Comments

How Does Dry Rot Affect My Home?

Liverpool Damp Surveyors: How Does Dry Rot Affect My Home?

Contrary to its name dry rot only grows where moist wood is present, so if your home suffers any leaks its a good idea to check your floorboards and walls for its presence. Dry rot is caused by a particular species of fungi and can remain dormant until the condition of the wood is optimum for its growth. As you may know dry rot effects the structural integrity of the wood it infests, so it is important to get it dealt with as soon as possible.

Posted by olly stabler @ 02:41 PM 5 Comments

One group disenfranchising the other.

NZ Herald: We're becoming tenants in our own country.

Mainland Chinese money snapped up at least 80 per cent of residential sales in parts of Auckland in March but were nearer 90 per cent in May, a whistle blower from the industry says. Can gaijin buy Chinese property with the same ease I wonder? Is this the only way that bubble saturated countries can maintain such stratospheric asset valuations now?

Posted by debtserf @ 12:56 PM 8 Comments

Interesting article

Japan Times: Residences left empty posing problems across the nation

As government-backed low-interest housing loans and tax benefits on those loans triggered a massive supply of new dwellings, quantity took precedence over quality. Houses were built to last just 25 to 30 years, well short of the global standard.

Posted by mark @ 10:25 AM 0 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 15 £268,000 N/A 7.20 Tick£274,000
(Aug 14)
2.1914/04/2015
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Mar 15 £275,123 0.20 5.60 Cross£280,733
(Nov 14)
2.0017/04/2015 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Mar 15 £192,970 0.40 8.10 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
3.4009/04/2015 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Apr 15 N/A 0.90 6.50 Cross N/A N/A 14/04/2015 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Sep 14 N/A 0.00 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 26/09/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report 29/08/15 Feb 15 £180,252 0.50 6.50 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
3.1127/03/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Mar 15 £189,454 0.10 5.10 TickThis monthN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £281,752 1.00 5.40 TickThis monthN/A16/03/2015 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 15 £490,000 N/A N/A 9.40 Tick£514,000
(Jul 14)
4.6714/04/2015
Halifax House Price Index Q4 14 £356,054 N/A N/A 14.50 CrossThis quarterN/A08/01/2015 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report 29/08/15 Feb 15 £463,872 0.60 N/A 13.10 TickThis monthN/A27/03/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 15 £408,780 N/A 1.00 12.70 CrossThis quarterN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £580,308 0.40 N/A 5.50 Tick£601,180
(Nov 14)
3.4716/03/2015 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive