The highlights on this website

Have your say in our popular discussion forum
Check out the latest House Price Statistics
See the predictions for UK House Prices
Read economic papers on the House Price Crash subject

'Must read/watch' external links

Don't believe the Estate Agents! Visit OurProperty.co.uk to find out the actual sold house prices direct from the Land Registry database
See real price reductions in your area, visit www.propertysnake.co.uk
An overview of what's happening with house prices in your area with the BBC
Forgotten the last crash? Watch the spitting image video on YouTube
The subprime crisis expertly explained by Bird and Fortune on YouTube
George Soros speaks about a hard landing for US house prices on YouTube
Visit the first-time buyer campaigning website www.pricedout.org.uk
Moneyweek: The trouble with interest-only mortgages
UK Housing - Moon-Bound or Pear-Shaped?
ABN Amro report - "...the UK housing market could be more vulnerable to a correction than the US" (PDF - 162kb)
Chris Parker's excellent house price crash flash movie

Friday, Jul 4, 2008

Yes, but where's the Halifax June survey!!??

Find A Property: Prices Dip In Every Region In June

Chestertons are way behind the curve..... "Not only was the -0.8 per cent fall marginally worse than the -0.7 per cent in May, but annual appreciation declined for the eleventh consecutive month, leaving house prices just 1.3 per cent higher than they were a year ago."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 01:33 PM 3 Comments

Sunday the 6th of July

BBC News: The evolution of a conspiracy theory

It wasn't only the Twin Towers that collapsed on September 11. A third World Trade Center tower that wasn't hit by the planes also fell. As a report into Tower 7 prepares to publish its findings, Mike Rudin considers how this conspiracy theory got to be so big. 9/11 is the conspiracy theory of the internet age. Put "9/11 conspiracy" into Google and you get 7.9 million hits. Put in "9/11 truth" and you get more than 22 million.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 12:59 PM 11 Comments

Vicious circle turns ever faster ...

The Times: Families turn to loans and credit cards to cover mortgage bills

"More than four million households have resorted to personal loans or credit cards to cover mortgage or rent payments in the past year. The financial comparison site Moneysupermarket.com said that many more homeowners could be sucked into a spiral of servicing long-term debt with expensive short-term borrowing when about £30 billion of mortgage deals come to an end this month." Nothing new, but all good evidence to support the reassuring thought that the HPC will be short sharp and steep.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 12:49 PM 7 Comments

Asleep At The Wheel

The Oil Drum (Europe): The Fantasy World Of The UK Government

Contributing to one of the threads yesterday, I touched on the worrying trend in government these days to avoid ANY talk of bad news - lest it undermine confidence in the market. And true enough, there's Alistair Darling today - in the face of carnage on the High St and housing sector, declaring that the economy is sound. But wait . . maybe he actually believes it. Especially if the government is supplied with stats like these from the DTI (BERR) - its 'high scenario' forecasting oil reaching a stratospheric $105 bbl by 2030. Best comment is by 'bunyonhead': 'My only suggestion to BERR is that if they intend to publish the report for mass market consumption, they should do so in a joint venture with Andrex so that the report will at least have some utility'.

Posted by lierbag @ 11:17 AM 3 Comments

Why the housing bust is bad news for the fire brigade

MoneyWeek: Why the housing bust is bad news for the fire brigade

"...the housing boom was based on consumption, not productive investment. Buy-to-let flats were overpriced consumer goods that have now gone out of fashion. Like a warehouse full of leftover models of last year's must-have Christmas toy, all they're doing is taking up valuable space that could be better devoted to something else..."

Posted by damien @ 10:56 AM 4 Comments

OUCH!!! - Inflation tsunami to hit UK shores!

BBC: BHP almost doubles Chinese prices

Mining giant BHP Billiton has reached a deal with China's largest steelmaker to almost double iron ore prices. Under the agreement, covering contracts for one year from 1 April 2008, BHP will increase its prices by up to 96.5% for deliveries to state-owned Baosteel.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:41 AM 3 Comments

Never mind ... The BoE will help them (secretly)

BBC News: B&B confirms new cash call plans

TPG walked away from its deal to buy the stake in B&B after Moody's, the credit rating agency, announced it was downgrading the long-term debt of the UK mortgage lender.

Posted by angonamo @ 09:40 AM 6 Comments

The Bank of England expresses its determination to prevent the ups and downs of booms and depressions

XAT: THE TALLY STICKS

Even today the Bank of England expresses its determination to prevent the ups and downs of booms and depressions, yet there have been nothing but ups and downs since its formation with the British pound rarely being stable. XAT when history is news

Posted by malct @ 09:20 AM 1 Comments

A change of tack?

M.a.p.: A short, sharp housing shock may be best

Is it better that prices should slide gently but continuously for three years? Or would a quicker and deeper plunge in year one, followed by two years of stability or even gently rising prices from a new lower base, be better?

Posted by cornishman @ 08:42 AM 17 Comments

It's getting harder to recapitalise

Times: B&B shareholders forced into funding rescue

Bradford & Bingley’s largest shareholders were forced to rescue the bank's capital-raising effort last night as TPG Capital, the private equity group, pulled out of a £179 million deal.

Posted by holding out @ 08:35 AM 3 Comments

Add a News Blog Article

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website	Period covered	Average house price	Monthly change (%)	Annual change (%)	Peak average house price	Change since peak (%)	Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index	Apr 08	£218,875	N/A	4.90	£221,758 (Jan 08)	1.30	10/06/2008
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics)	May 08	£228,824	0.60	2.70	£231,595 (Feb 08)	1.20	13/06/2008 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index	May 08	£184,111	2.40	3.80	£199,770 (Aug 07)	7.84	05/06/2008 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales)	Jun 08	N/A	0.20	1.10	N/A	N/A	12/06/2008 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey	Jun 08	N/A	1.00	3.20	N/A	N/A	30/06/2008
Land Registry Monthly Report	May 08	£183,266	0.00	1.80	£186,045 (Jan 08)	1.49	27/06/2008 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index	Jun 08	£172,415	0.90	6.30	£186,044 (Oct 07)	7.33	01/07/2008 (PDF)
Prime Location House Price Index	Apr 08	£548,084	0.40	6.90	£548,405 (Jul 07)	0.06	No date given (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index	Jun 08	£239,564	1.30	0.10	£242,500 (May 08)	1.21	23/06/2008 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website	Period covered	Average house price	Monthly change (%)	Quarterly change (%)	Annual change (%)	Peak average house price	Change since peak (%)	Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index	Apr 08	£342,921	N/A	N/A	7.50	£351,096 (Jan 08)	2.33	10/06/2008
Halifax House Price Index	Q1 08	£304,781	N/A	1.60	2.00	£320,847 (Q3 07)	5.01	18/04/2008 (WORD)
Land Registry Monthly Report	May 08	£354,714	0.80	N/A	6.90	£357,976 (Jan 08)	0.91	27/06/2008 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index	Q2 08	£285,568	N/A	3.80	2.30	£303,739 (Q4 07)	5.98	01/07/2008 (PDF)
Prime Location House Price Index	Apr 08	£1,337,319	0.60	N/A	11.70	This month	N/A	No date given (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index	Jun 08	£399,010	1.40	N/A	2.90	£412,731 (Nov 07)	3.32	23/06/2008 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

Source website	Analyst	Photo	Date prediction made	Amount predicted	Region	Time Period	Notes
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	7-9 %	UK	2010-2013	Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Allied Surveyors	Grant Robertson	N/A	Jan 2008	5-7 %	Scotland	2008	Amidst all the doom and gloom, Allied Surveyors are expecting Scottish house prices to increase above inflation in 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	4%	Scotland	2008	Nationwide believes Scotland will be the strongest performing region next year.
Savills	Lucian Cook		Dec 2007	4%	Scotland	2008	Savills also thinks prices in Scotland will rise by 4 per cent in 2008.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	Scotland	2008	Hometrack is forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Scotland for 2008.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	Northern Ireland	2008	Hometrack is also forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Northern Ireland for 2008.
Knight Frank	Liam Bailey	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	London Prime	2008	Knight Frank's view is that prime London will cease to lead the UK market for the first time for two years.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Aug 2007	1-2 %	UK	2008	Hometrack sees near stagnation in the UK housing market for 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	1%	London	2008	Nationwide is forecasting 1 per cent growth in London house prices this year.
Savills	Lucian Cook		Dec 2007	1%	Wales	2008	Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.
Lombard Street Research	Diana Choyleva		Oct 2007	0%	UK	2008	Ms Choyleva believes that the recent Northern Rock crisis will be the final straw for the UK housing market.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Nov 2007	0%	UK	2008	Britain's biggest building society predicts stagnation and says that economic tailwinds will turn into headwinds.
Rightmove.co.uk	Miles Shipside		Dec 2007	0%	UK	2008	Miles Shipside expects a "period of stagnation" for prices in 2008, with most sellers still able to decide whether or not to drop their asking price.
United Trust Bank	Roger Tidyman	N/A	Jan 2008	0%	UK	2008	Roger Tidyman expects modest price falls in the first half of the year with some recovery in the second half of 2008 resulting in flat overall growth for 2008.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	1-3 %	UK	2009	Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Charcol.co.uk	Ray Boulger		Dec 2007	2%	UK	2008	Mortgage broker John Charcol predicts that property transactions will fall by 15 per cent in 2008, gross mortgage lending will fall from £360bn to £320bn but house prices will only fall by 2%.
CEBR	N/A	N/A	Jan 2008	3%	UK	2008	The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), forecast that average property prices will drop by 2.5% during 2008.
Knight Frank	Liam Bailey	N/A	Apr 2008	3%	UK	2008	Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.
UBS	Amit Kara & Sunil Kapadia	N/A	Jan 2008	3%	UK	2008	UBS Economists say that the key issue for the housing market is "whether there will be a slow burn in house prices or whether there is scope for a hard landing.
BBC	Evan Davis		Dec 2007	5-10 %	UK	2008	Evan Davis expects that house prices will continue to fall, by 5-10% over the year. He also doesn't rule out the possibility of the falls being much bigger.
Capital Economics	Roger Bootle		Oct 2007	5%	UK	2008	Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast yet again.
Deloitte	Roger Bootle		Jan 2008	5%	UK	2008	Deloitte’s quarterly economic review predicts that house prices will slump by 5% this year.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	5%	Northern Ireland	2008	Nationwide is expecting Northern Ireland to be the weakest part of the country during 2008.
RICS	Simon Rubinsohn		May 2008	5%	UK	2008	Another revised forecast from RICS.
UK Government	Caroline Flint		May 2008	5-10 %	UK	2008	Caroline Flint, the Housing minister, inadvertently revealed that house price could fall up to 10% this year "at best".
Savills	Yolande Barnes		Apr 2008	6-25 %	UK	2008-2009	A revised forecast downwards from Savills.
Council of Mortgage Lenders	Michael Coogan		May 2008	7%	UK	2008	A substantial revised forecast from CML predicting a 7% fall in UK house prices this year.
Global Insight	Howard Archer		Apr 2008	7%	UK	2008	A revised prediction downwards by Global Insight.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	7-9 %	UK	2008	In a new forecast for the residential market, the estate agency predicts that the economy will progressively weaken over the course of the year.
Deloitte	Roger Bootle		Jan 2008	8%	UK	2009	Deloitte’s quarterly economic review predicts that house prices will slump by 8% next year.
Invesco Perpetual	Neil Woodford		Jan 2008	8-10 %	UK	2008	Neil Woodford, goes further than his prediction to say that areas which have seen a concentration of speculative development and buying, such as regional metropolitan centres, could be subject to much sharper falls.
Global Insight	Howard Archer		Apr 2008	9%	UK	2009	A revised prediction downwards by Global Insight.
Halifax	Martin Ellis	N/A	Jun 2008	9%	UK	2008	Halifax had earlier predicted that the decline would be less severe.
Institute of Economic Affairs	Philip Booth	N/A	Jan 2008	10%	UK	2008	Mr Booth says that more falls are possible after 2008 but also says that this should not affect the economy greatly as long as monetary policy is conducted appropriately.
brightsale.co.uk	Jeremy Howard	N/A	Apr 2008	12%	UK	2008-2013	Brightsale's prediction is inline with the property derivatives market.
FirstRung.co.uk	Paul Holmes	N/A	Nov 2007	12%	UK	2008	The mortgage broker, firstrung said that predictions of gentle slowdowns were off the mark.
MarketOracle.co.uk	Nadeem Walayat	N/A	Aug 2007	15%	UK	2007-2009	Market Oracle believe that the crash will be led by the buy to let sector jumping ship.
Fool.co.uk	David Kuo	N/A	Dec 2007	20%	UK	2008	David Kuo believes that the average price of a house could fall by up to a fifth to £157,290 in 2008.
London School of Economics	John Van Reenen		Jan 2008	20%	UK	2008-2009	John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
Morgan Stanley	David Miles		Mar 2008	20%	UK	2008-2009	David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Boom Bust	Fred Harrison		Jan 2008	30%	UK	2008-2012	Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of Economics	Willem Buiter	N/A	Jan 2008	30%	UK	2008-2009	Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Numis Securities	James Hamilton	N/A	Mar 2008	30%	UK	Not stated	James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Capital Economics	Roger Bootle		Jun 2008	35%	UK	2008-2010	Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Housepricecrash.co.uk	Jonathan Davis		Sep 2007	35%	UK	2008-2012	In our view, history and economics leads us to believe that the boom is over and there will be a gradual and cumulative fall annually from this point forward.

Predictions archive