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Latest: House Price Crash News

Wednesday, Apr 23 2014 Add a News Blog Article

The Tories should be appalled - but what should they do about it.....

Torygraph: Honest work can't put a roof over people's heads: true Tories should be appalled

Its good we have political consensus growing for reducing the cost or housing. While I think building more houses is important - it is of far more fundamental importance to enact policies that reduce rents and house prices, shifting the tax burden being the first.

Posted by pete green @ 10:57 AM 0 Comments

Well, this should be easy to monitor and enforce

Daily Mail: The mortgage inquisition: Borrowers face tough new quiz..

The FCA's new 'macroprudential' regulation of mortgages to rein in house price rises. Mortgage applicants are to face 'invasive' and 'inquisitorial' questions about their finances and lifestyles in an interview lasting 'up to 3 hours'. There will be stress tests like: what if IRs rose sharply, say to 7%. And there'll be far fewer short, fixed-term teaser rates and virtually no interest-only mortgages. Ray Boulger thinks it's silly.

Posted by icarus @ 09:51 AM 7 Comments

The shape of things to come - probably pensions and more QE next.

Zerohedge.com: Martin Armstrong Warns "Abandon The UK Before You Can't"

''The politicians have squandered everything and now they are hunting down capital everywhere and the view is people have to pay whatever they demand or you are just a criminal.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:21 PM 2 Comments

London has started to crash

Mindfulmoney: Three reasons not to rush into housebuying now

I came across these charts while trying to figure out the best places to hunt for houses in London on a value-for-money basis; I think they speak for themselves… Slump in new buyer enquiries and the gulf in house prices has never been greater. These three charts seems to suggest that the sharp surge in London house prices over the last few months could be at risk of cooling or even partially reversing over the next few months, hard though it may be to believe at the moment!

Posted by khards @ 06:08 PM 21 Comments

Very surprising stats and some interesting conclusions

BBC News: Is the UK mending fast enough?

Not what I expected at all, tbh. Last info I'd read on UK debt was in the Economist last year, accurate at Sept. 2012. It turns out the situation has much improved since then, but only as a % of GDP. Banking debt has apparently fallen significantly, though.

Posted by reticent @ 06:07 PM 4 Comments

Economists warn on toronto bubble

Huffington post: Average toronto price $1 million

Thought it was Interesting how similar this is to london/uk...particularly in the comments lots of talk about shortages etc but most telling was that in reality its super low interest Rates that make these prices affordable.btw Mark Carney caused this.as he was the canada bank Boss..so I thought it was relevent

Posted by taffee @ 04:03 PM 0 Comments

Keiser does the housing super bubble!!

RT: Keiser Report - Episode 591

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the rentier rising from the dead, generation debt and harvesting the young with student debt. In the second half, Max interviews Ross Ashcroft about the housing super bubble in London and what it means to the rest of the economy to have a rentier class in charge.

Posted by khards @ 12:44 PM 2 Comments

The new rentier pradigm

Daily Kos: Housing Secretary: “the worst rental affordability crisis that this country has ever known"

What if our economic crisis was not the start of a House Price Crash but heralded a new rentier economic paradigm in the west. Bringing back the days of serfdom between renters and house owners , BTL landlords and the new breed of corporate landlords we see in the states. Are the poorest and youngest to give half of their income straight to the landlord or banks' enshrining poverty unless your lucky enough to inherit a house. I am sure rentiers wish this to happen where landlords and banks pluck half the incomes from the majority of productive workforce, but could a system happen and could it be stable?

Posted by pete green @ 11:15 AM 41 Comments

Here's your answer, Mr Weale (see lib's post)

Zero Hedge: Chief economist (of BIS): (QE) is extremely dangerous

Ex-BIS man says QE was meant to get seized-up markets going again but that aim has morphed into inflating asset prices to get people to spend (or is it to make the rich richer?). But QE doesn't tackle the excessive debt that caused the problem in the first place. The solution to that is write-offs, restructuring, recapitalisation. But QE is la la land where nobody needs to do anything while big problems stack up unseen - mainly zombies which suck the life out of the healthy parts of the economy. And it's worse than 2007 because emerging economies have been sucked in to the world of debt/liquidity-driven bubbles. And moral hazard is now worse among bankers. He says that Japan is in a particularly bad place and that "(with QE) housing tends to be the big thing that goes wrong".

Posted by icarus @ 11:12 AM 47 Comments

Quantitative Easing destroyed £150bn from economy

Telegraph: QE has boosted UK growth by 3pc, says Martin Weale

Reporters are inanely stating that QE boosted the economy by £50bn without covering the other half of the equation. The government spent £200bn on QE to get £50bn growth. For that price, they could have eliminated corporation tax (£51bn) and income tax (£155bn) for a whole year, or slashed both by 10% for a decade, and guess what, that would have created TRILLIONS in growth, with almost every corporation in the planet moving to head quarter Britain. What actually happened was, that they destroyed the economy to give £50bn to their buddies. This is called artificial scarcity, or neo-feudalism.

Posted by libertas @ 09:36 PM 1 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 14 £254,000 N/A 6.80 TickThis monthN/A25/03/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Feb 14 £257,951 1.00 6.00 CrossThis monthN/A14/03/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Feb 14 £179,872 2.40 7.90 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
9.9606/03/2014 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Mar 14 N/A 1.40 7.90 Cross N/A N/A 13/03/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Feb 14 N/A 0.70 5.40 Cross N/A N/A 03/03/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jan 14 £168,356 1.00 4.20 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
9.5128/02/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Feb 14 £177,846 0.60 9.40 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
4.4128/02/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 14 £255,962 1.60 6.80 TickThis monthN/A17/03/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 14 £458,000 N/A N/A 13.20 TickThis monthN/A25/03/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q4 13 £310,113 N/A N/A 15.40 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
3.3508/01/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jan 14 £409,881 2.10 N/A 10.90 TickThis monthN/A28/02/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q4 13 £345,186 N/A 4.70 14.90 CrossThis quarterN/A03/01/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 14 £552,530 2.10 N/A 11.30 TickThis monthN/A17/03/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive