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Thursday, Oct 23 2014 Add a News Blog Article

Another classic Keiser episode with Mitch Feierstein

MaxKeiser: [KR669] Keiser Report – Apocalypse Now

We discuss the horror, the horror of the apocalyptic scenes that central bankers have wrought upon the innocent and the deranged alike. This apocalyptic aftermath of meeting the Colonel Kurtz like central bankers is an economy in which the under-30s are left behind and the pauperization of workers through inflation. In the second half, Max interviews Mitch Feierstein of about how democracy has been vaporised in the UK and the result is the falling wages which have led to protests in the streets of London.

Posted by khards @ 08:08 PM 0 Comments

Naughty, Naughty here's a £10 fine

Telegraph: The £100,000 mortgage that cost £250,000 - equity release complaints rise

Those turning to equity release risk paying added interest and early repayment charges that can in some circumstances quadruple the value of the original loan and cost borrowers up to £200,000 extra. As a result the number of disputes between mortgage companies and borrowers has increased. Almost half of equity release borrowers do so to meet "everyday costs", according to the industry body, the Equity Release Council. Other causes include funding home improvements and helping grandchildren with a property deposit. One elderly customer had to pay £250,000 to clear a £100,000 mortgage taken out just eight years earlier after downsizing following her husband's death. What was worse, only half of the £100,000 borrowed had been spent.

Posted by khards @ 06:01 PM 0 Comments

Fetch the engines, fetch the engines. Fire fire, Fire Fire!

CNBC: Luxury London property prices fall 20%

The price of luxury homes in prime central London locations has fallen by over 20 percent, according to a national estate agent, signaling that a correction in the capital's booming housing market could be afoot. Properties in the £2 to £5 million price bracket saw prices fall 27.1 percent in the same period. Homes worth over £5 million performed slightly better but still saw a decline of 15.2 percent. As the U.K. heads into an election year in 2015, the uncertainty over the country's political future could deter buyers further.

Posted by khards @ 11:09 AM 7 Comments

London's burning, London's burning...

PropertyIndustryEye: London market showing further signs of falls as sales collapse 27%

The prime central London market is showing further signs of decline, says Strutt & Parker. Its data for the third quarter of 2014 shows that both prices and transactions have slipped year on year. The overall value of properties transacted by the firm is down 21.1%. Properties sub-£2m saw a decrease of 20.8% while £2m-£5m homes went down by 27.1%. £5m-plus homes performed slightly better, but still saw a decline of 15.2%. A similar pattern emerged in terms of volume sales, which were down 26.8% overall, with all price bands seeing a reduction in the number of transactions.

Posted by khards @ 11:01 AM 0 Comments

The cost of a [Tory] debt driven ''recovery''

Telegraph: George Osborne set to miss deficit targets as Government borrowing jumps

Year - Borrowing - Total PSND - Interest 2006/07 - 36.3 - 526.7 - 28.6 2007/08 - 40.3 - 558.2 - 31.2 2008/09 - 100.3 - 724.4 - 31.5 2009/10 - 153.0 - 956.4 - 31.6 2010/11 - 133.9 - 1,101.0 - 46.6 2011/12 - 112.5 - 1,190. 9 - 49.7 2012/13 - 119.4 - 1,299.1 - 48.9 2013/14 - 99.3 - 1,402.2 - 48.7

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:54 AM 9 Comments

A dismal analysis for savers and renters

NotAyesManEconomics Blog: Why I think a Base Rate cut in the UK is as likely as a rise going forwards

I have previously posted some blogging by Shaun Richards at the "Mindful Money" site which he seems to have stopped using. Though no fan of house price pumping, he makes a case that we are stuck in a (Japanese?) economic rut and our central bank is turning against the interest rates they have warned of for some years. At one point, he quotes a speech by Andy Haldane at BoE that particularly struck me: "In the UK, real interest rates are now expected to remain negative for at least the next 40 years."

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:31 AM 1 Comments

What goes up always comes down

Daily telegraph: Top end house prices in London slashed by 20%

Articles discussed how top end house prices in London are being slashed by 20%. London housing always acts as a wave and we will see this feeding further through London, especially with the silly shoe boxes that are promoted all along the dirty river Thames. What will be interesting is what effect this will have on sentiment. If this feeds into the housing indices and the mood changes to one of 'property always goes up', to 'property is way overpriced' and we should wait until prices come down.

Posted by britishblue @ 05:35 PM 20 Comments

Devaluation on the way - More debt, more interest that tax payers will never be able to repay!

Not The BBC: Reuters: Rising UK borrowing leaves no room for pre-election sweeteners

British government borrowing rose more than 10 percent in the first half of the financial year, giving Chancellor George Osborne little scope to offer sweeteners to voters before a parliamentary election in May. Britain's economy has staged a stronger-than-expected recovery since the middle of 2013. But that has not yet translated into a big increase in tax revenues, in large part because slow wage growth has kept a lid on income tax receipts. Revenues from income tax and employment insurance contributions in September, 2.3 percent higher than a year ago. However, for the year to date it was up by just 0.5 percent. Borrowing for September was 15.3 percent higher than a year earlier at 11.8 billion pounds, the Office for National Statistics said.

Posted by khards @ 02:37 PM 4 Comments

Debt, Debt, Debt, Debt and more Debt!

BBC: The UK's current-account Achilles' heel

The Bank of England is now expected to defer any increase in its policy interest rate till at least next autumn to maintain momentum in household consumption, business investment and construction, in the expected absence of strong demand for British goods and services from abroad. Domestic demand will become even more important to growth and making sure inflation does not fall too much further below its 2% target than it is today. Stimulating domestic demand at this stage of the recovery brings risks - especially because the UK has a record current account deficit, or gap between the income it receives from the rest of the world and what it pays the rest of the world. This deficit has now been more than 5% for three out of the last four quarters - and is wider than since records began.

Posted by khards @ 12:34 PM 2 Comments

Bye Bye Inheritance

Telegraph: Home owners use properties as 'cash machines' to fund retirement

Pensioners in their sixties and seventies in particular were turning to equity release, an expensive type of borrowing which typically lasts for life. Industry figures show the sum lent each day to the over-55s reached a record high between July and September this year, “Rising house prices also mean that customers have a growing pool of equity at their disposal.” In the early Nineties, a man aged 65 could have turned £100,000 into a lifetime income of more than £15,000 a year by buying an annuity. Today, someone of that age would be offered nearer £6,000. The research found 27 per cent of people wanted to give money to family members, particularly grandchildren who were struggling to get on to the property ladder themselves. Spending it before the government tax it?

Posted by khards @ 07:58 AM 3 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £262,000 N/A 10.50 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Jun 14 £268,637 0.70 9.60 CrossThis monthN/A11/07/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 14 £183,462 0.60 8.80 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
8.1609/07/2014 (PDF) (England and Wales) Jul 14 N/A 0.57 9.56 Cross N/A N/A 15/07/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jul 14 N/A 0.10 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 25/07/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £172,011 0.00 6.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
7.5428/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jul 14 £188,949 0.10 10.60 TickThis monthN/A31/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £270,159 0.80 6.50 Tick£272,275
(Jun 14)
0.7821/07/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
change (%)
change (%)
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £492,000 N/A N/A 20.10 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q2 14 £330,315 N/A N/A 15.90 CrossThis quarterN/A04/07/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £437,608 0.10 N/A 16.40 Tick£439,719
(May 14)
0.4828/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 14 £400,404 N/A 7.60 25.80 CrossThis quarterN/A02/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £587,174 0.40 N/A 13.90 Tick£592,763
(May 14)
0.9421/07/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession. HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive