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Latest: House Price Crash News

Wednesday, Apr 16 2014 Add a News Blog Article

Don't worry, this boom will be perfect

Evening Standard: Housing crisis overtakes transport as biggest concern for Londoners, poll suggests

House prices always go up forever.

Posted by sneaker @ 09:11 PM 4 Comments

It's a superbubble

Evening Standard: The housing bubble continues to swell

But if there is a shortage of supply, why are rents ... falling?

Posted by sneaker @ 09:11 PM 1 Comments

Frances O'Grady says a cost of living crisis remains

Sky: House Price Concern As Wider Inflation Eases

"Wage rises could be finally outstripping inflation for the first time in years though house price growth continues apace". ( NOTE KEYWORD: could).

Posted by alan @ 03:54 PM 3 Comments

Now london is in superbubble?

Dailymail: Is london now in a superbubble

Remarkably similar to Tokyo where properties eventually fell over 80% and 22 years later Are still up to 40% less....I.e. this time it didn't recover...I cannot see this ending anyway but Very very badly

Posted by taffee @ 02:05 PM 10 Comments

A fate worse than death...

BBC: Scottish independence: Debt dump worth more than oil, says CPPR

A spokesman for Better Together said: "Only Alex Salmond is suggesting that Scotland would default on our share of the debt if we leave the UK. "People know what happens if you don't pay your debts - you end up with a bad credit rating and everything is more expensive. "That would mean far higher mortgage repayments, higher credit card bills and higher costs for families." They can take our lives, but they'll never take away our low mortgage interest rates!!

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 07:38 AM 0 Comments

The new generation of 1st time buyers

BBC: Graduate starting salaries drop 11% in 5 years

Graduates salaries have dropped by an average of 11% in real terms in 5 years in the UK. Under graduates have now seen university fees rise from a maxium of £3,290 in 2010 to £9000 now. To get onto the housing ladder in most parts of the country, students would have to start paying back their loan and in some areas like London it would be the maximum amount. There are also moves to sell of the student loan book which could see rates charged rise. This of course only matters if you feel that indigineous students who have been born here deserve to be able to afford to buy a property. If you view is that housing is an international business comommodity that should be freely available to the highest bidder, then just forget the next generation and promote the safe haven product.

Posted by britishblue @ 02:32 PM 3 Comments

Big Trouble in Little China

Forbes: China Property Collapse Has Begun

Nothing is going right for Hangzhou at this moment. Walmart will be closing its Zhaohui store in that city on April 23 as a part of its overall plan to dump marginal locations—about 9% of the total—in China. The real weakness, however, is Hangzhou’s residential sector. The cause is simple: massive overbuilding. The real estate market in Hangzhou looks like it has just passed an inflection point. It is not so much that fundamentals have deteriorated - they have been weak for some time - as that people’s mentality has changed. Now, the problem of no buyers is spreading across the country. The secondary property market has tumbled, with sales falling by more than half in Q1 2014 from the same quarter in 2013. Speculators have either left the domestic market or have sold off holdings.

Posted by khards @ 10:15 AM 4 Comments

How to do austerity

SCotsman: Families ‘one pay packet away from losing home’

How can the Chancellor follow through with delayed austerity, when introducing austerity will start a 'rip' through mortgage servicing as government spending that might be reduced is geographically centred.

Posted by stillthinking @ 08:58 AM 3 Comments

London is not in a bubble. I repeat: London is not in a bubble.

Evening Standard (MBVNIF): Garage near London industrial estate sold for over half a million pounds at 'frenzied' auction

A ramshackle brick-built garage next to a south London light industrial estate has become the most expensive ever to sell in Britain after reaching an auction price of £550,000 in a “frenzied” bidding war. The 568sq ft former coach house, used for years to park the mayor of Southwark’s car, went under the hammer for almost triple the guide price and £150,000 more than the average house in “up-and-coming” Camberwell. It is also £25,000 more than was raised by the sale of a double garage in the shadow of Harrod’s in Knightsbridge, central London, last year – a record at the time.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 01:34 PM 13 Comments

Things that make you go hmmmm

FT (via Google): China bond auction failure reinforces slowdown concerns

The Chinese government was unable to sell all the bonds offered at an auction on Friday, its first such failure in nearly a year amid concerns about slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy. The failed bond auction raises the stakes for Beijing as it tries to rein in debt levels, illustrating that even the state will have to pay a higher cost for funding as banks focus more on investment risks and demand improved yields. In the bond auction the finance ministry had hoped to sell Rmb28bn ($4.5bn) of one-year bonds. However, it ended up selling just Rmb20.7bn, the first time since June that a government debt sale failed to reach its target. Last year’s failure was a precursor to a cash crunch that roiled global markets when Chinese money market rates spiked to double-digits.

Posted by khards @ 12:57 PM 2 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 14 £254,000 N/A 6.80 TickThis monthN/A25/03/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Feb 14 £257,951 1.00 6.00 CrossThis monthN/A14/03/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Feb 14 £179,872 2.40 7.90 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
9.9606/03/2014 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Mar 14 N/A 1.40 7.90 Cross N/A N/A 13/03/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Feb 14 N/A 0.70 5.40 Cross N/A N/A 03/03/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jan 14 £168,356 1.00 4.20 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
9.5128/02/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Feb 14 £177,846 0.60 9.40 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
4.4128/02/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 14 £255,962 1.60 6.80 TickThis monthN/A17/03/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 14 £458,000 N/A N/A 13.20 TickThis monthN/A25/03/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q4 13 £310,113 N/A N/A 15.40 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
3.3508/01/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jan 14 £409,881 2.10 N/A 10.90 TickThis monthN/A28/02/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q4 13 £345,186 N/A 4.70 14.90 CrossThis quarterN/A03/01/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 14 £552,530 2.10 N/A 11.30 TickThis monthN/A17/03/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive