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Office For Budget Responsibility - Property Transaction Forecasts
    The Office for Budget Responsibility seem to have released an up...

Suggestions For Gordon Brown's Next Job
Looks like the man who 'fights for the poor, 24h day, every day' when faced with...

Why A House-Price Bubble Means Trouble
  Very interesting article. ...

P2P Lending To Probably Be Included In Nisa's From 2015 - Gamechanger?
The P2P lending industry is celebrating the fact that the Government is planning...

Why Are Mortgages So Staggeringly Cheap Right Now?
Putting speculation aside that bank's risk costs will shoot them up in future, W...

Telegraph Thinks It's Still 2007......
Articles on gazumping BTL as an investment option And general mortgage ******...

Broon To Quit As Mp
    '..he wants to go out on a high...'      ...

Diary Of A Aspirant Buyer
hi,   I've been looking for 2 years, but never really been able to spend al...

Plough £1Bn Of Forex Fines Into Nhs, Balls Urges
Ed Balls has urged the Chancellor to plough £1bn in fines raised from banks...

Buy To Let Properties To Be Allowable In Personal Pensions
    ...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Sunday, Nov 23 2014 Add a News Blog Article

Black Swan rising?

Reuters: China ready to cut rates again on fears of deflation

"China's leadership and central bank are ready to cut interest rates again and also loosen lending restrictions, concerned that falling prices could trigger a surge in debt defaults, business failures and job losses, said sources involved in policy-making". "Many Chinese economists had been calling for bolder policy actions, as recent data showed the economy losing more steam in the fourth quarter and consumer price inflation falling. Full-year growth is on track to undershoot the government’s 7.5 percent target and mark the weakest expansion in 24 years". If true, this will hit the UK and EU.

Posted by alan @ 07:23 PM 1 Comments

Something is very wrong

Department for Communities and Local Government: House Building: September Quarter 2014, England

Free markets generally respond to demand and rising prices with innovation and supply. Except when it comes to buidling houses it seems. Compare completions for housebuilding with prices over a similar period: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/20/britain-net-worth-rises. This is where I found the DCLG report: http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/home/blogs/stuttering-starts/7006963.blog

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:23 PM 2 Comments

What was that about a recovery?

Mail: Blow for George Osborne as government borrowing RISES sending the country's debt pile to £1.5 TRILLION

Borrowing increased by £3.7 billion in the 12 months to October UK's debt pile has now hit £1.5 trillion up £150 billion in just a year Debt now represents 79.5 per cent of Britain's entire economic output

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:03 PM 2 Comments

Another prop for a stalling property market

Portfolio Adviser: China’s surprise rate cut sends shares soaring

China has cut interest rates for the first time in over two years in an effort to drive economic growth. The People’s Bank of China cut the one-year deposit rate by 25 basis points and one-year benchmark lending rates by 40 basis points, representing a surprise turnaround in policy. Stalls in factory growth and the property market have contributed to the slowest rate of economic expansion that China has experienced in nearly a quarter of a century. The FTSE 100 is trading up 76 points (1.14%) at 6754, largely due to the move by China.

Posted by jack c @ 04:27 PM 10 Comments

US pension fund buys London estate.

Guardian: New Era estate scandal: families at the mercy of international speculators

Homes across London have turned into an international asset class and their residents now live in financial instruments

Posted by mountain goat @ 11:31 AM 6 Comments

Bought house at market top, now living well beyond their means

Mail: Just because I live in a £1m house doesn't mean I'm not on the breadline

''While our mortgage repayment is fixed at £2,000, factor in bills, food, loans and the general upkeep of four growing boys and it adds up to more than £4,000.'' - Like most of UK, this family think have a god given entitlement to whatever they want!

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:41 AM 16 Comments

Poor Milliband - Off on the wrong foot AGAIN!

Guardian: Myleene Klass ‘goes full Paxman’ on Ed Miliband over mansion tax

Singer tells the Labour leader his ‘disturbing’ plan to impose a levy on £2m-plus homes would hit ‘little grannies’. She was supported by fellow guest, former ambassador Sir Christopher Meyer, who said: “You’re going to screw me royally.” Following the spat, bookmaker Coral gave odds of 5-1 that Klass would become the next presenter of the BBC’s Newsnight, 20-1 she would become a Tory MP, and 33-1 that she would become a Labour one :-)

Posted by alan @ 08:46 PM 16 Comments

What will they do once rates are cut?!

Telegraph: Don’t expect an interest rate rise until 2016, says HSBC

What they won't expect is the cut to 0.25% once inflation is below 1% for longer than the bankster's capital bases can tolerate. Also, government like high prices because they can tax the prices of most things, so they try to not allow deflation.

Posted by libertas @ 12:32 AM 37 Comments

What an incredibly sad day for UK politics

Telegraph: House prices will go down if you vote Ukip

"Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst says homeowners fear a win for Ukip because it will tarnish the area" . "The danger is if you vote Ukip, the value of your house will go down," said Charles Walker, the Con MP for Broxbourne, who was campaigning in the town this afternoon". ( I don't care if you like UKIP or not - this isn't the way to encourage people to vote on the issues of this country). The article goes on to give house prices in the area. FFS!

Posted by alan @ 06:11 PM 17 Comments

Time to wake up

BBC: Rising housing costs will push millions into poverty

The charity's report says that by 2040, people who rent will be more than twice as likely to be living in poverty than homeowners. Its chief executive says leaders should build more affordable housing. In a statement, Julia Unwin said: "These stark findings are a wake-up call for political leaders. After decades of failing to build enough, those in power have a responsibility to act now to build more genuinely affordable homes. The charity predicts that by 2040, 2.5 million less people will be living in social housing. It says six million private renters - that's half of all private renters- will be living in poverty.

Posted by flashman @ 02:19 PM 17 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £262,000 N/A 10.50 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Jun 14 £268,637 0.70 9.60 CrossThis monthN/A11/07/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 14 £183,462 0.60 8.80 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
8.1609/07/2014 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jul 14 N/A 0.57 9.56 Cross N/A N/A 15/07/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jul 14 N/A 0.10 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 25/07/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £172,011 0.00 6.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
7.5428/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jul 14 £188,949 0.10 10.60 TickThis monthN/A31/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £270,159 0.80 6.50 Tick£272,275
(Jun 14)
0.7821/07/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £492,000 N/A N/A 20.10 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q2 14 £330,315 N/A N/A 15.90 CrossThis quarterN/A04/07/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £437,608 0.10 N/A 16.40 Tick£439,719
(May 14)
0.4828/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 14 £400,404 N/A 7.60 25.80 CrossThis quarterN/A02/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £587,174 0.40 N/A 13.90 Tick£592,763
(May 14)
0.9421/07/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive